Preview: Argentina v Scotland
Fri, 13 Jun 2008 08:41
Both teams have made changes since their meeting in Rosario last week, Scotland more significantly than Argentina have. The Scottish coach, Frank Hadden, says that the changes are in search of victory.
Presumably the selection for the first Test was also in search of victory. Will this work.
The Pumas have changed the wings and these players, Lucas Borges and Horacio Agulla, recently released from Europe, should be better players. That should be an improvement.
In Scotland's case things are less certain. Dan Parks was first-choice flyhalf last week but now he is on the bench and Phil Godman takes his place. The changes in the back three may just be significant, though, because Simon Webster looks the only Scottish back on this trip likely to score a try.
In the first Test, the Scots did not look like scoring a try. That they were leading near the end was really thanks only to Chris Paterson and his unerring boot. That boot is back again to punish Puma indiscretions.
The Pumas looked far more likely to score a try. In fact they managed two tries, one with assault and battery and one a piece of belated opportunism, and they were a TMO away from a third. They could manage this again - organised battering of a physical kind at the Scottish line, a sudden moment of opportunism.
For the rest it may be more of the same - slow tackle/rucks, crumbling scrums - unless the referee can gee the players up. The Rosario Test was not fluent.
Presumably the Scottish pack stand up well enough, blessing the prolonged absence of Patricio Albacete, Rimas Alvarez-Kairelis, Omar Hasan, Mario Ledesma, Gonzalo Longo, Lucas Ostiglia, Rodrigo Roncero, Juan Martín Scelzo and Alberto Vernet Basualdo - a whole pack of rugged forwards.
If the Scots are to beat the Pumas, this is a good chance for them - even without Nathan Hines and Scott Murray.
The tight five were better than the Pumas in the line-outs and that should be the same. They won the scrums, at least in the referee's eyes for he penalised the Pumas twice in what used to be their speciality. That means that the tackle/ruck will make the difference - not just the winning of it but what is done with it.
The Pumas will presumably pick-'n-drive, mustering muscle at every opportunity. It may well help the Scots to counter this by breaking away from the tackle as quickly as possible.
The Pumas won that in Rosario because they were stronger. Maybe, just maybe, the Scots will win the battle for the tackle by being faster, now that they have brought John Barclay into the mix. In fact the Scottish loose forwards may well hold the key to victory.
The Pumas have the muscle but the Scots may well have the speed and the skill. Puma No.8 Juan Manuel Leguizamon looks a heavier and slower machine than he was when he first flashed onto the international scene.
Players to Watch: You
will see Felipe Contepomi (Argentina). Did he try too much in the first Test? He is such a skilful player and at his best when he springs a surprise. For Scotland Mike Blair is outstanding, again a player who can spring surprises, the sort who can break a game open. And somehow I believe that the player on both sides who could attack best is Simon Webster (Scotland). And didn't you like burly, bustling new hooker Álvaro Tejeda? And will this be a last Test for Ignacio Fernandez Lobbe, great warhorse, Puma since 1996, carrying the Blue and White of General Belgrano's flag into battle for the 64th time as he waits for reinforcements to arrive from Europe?
Head to Head: Will Johan Barclay make the difference? Will he win against Martín Durand? That could be a good clash. There will also be the Battle of the Boot -
metronomic Chris Paterson of Scotland against dapper Federico Todeschini of Argentina.
Previous Results:
History does not present the Scots with a happy view.
2008: Argentina won 21-15, Rosario
2007: Argentina won 19-13, Paris
2005: Argentina won 23-19, Edinburgh
2001: Argentina won 25-16, Edinburgh
1999: Argentina won 31-22, Edinburgh
1994: Argentina won 19-17, Buenos Aires
1994: Argentina won 16-15, Buenos Aires
1990: Scotland won 49-3, Edinburgh
Prediction: It could again be close but the Pumas look strong enough to dominate the Scots and with a bit more time should be able to get a bit more fluency into their attacking play. The Pumas by more than 10.
Teams:
Argentina: 15 Bernardo Stortoni, 14 Lucas Borges, 13 Gonzalo Tiesi, 12 Felipe Contepomi
(captain), 11 Horacio Agulla, 10 Federico Todeschini, 9 Nicolás Vergallo, 8 Juan Manuel Leguizamón, 7 Juan Fernández Lobbe, 6 Martín Durand, 5 Esteban Lozada, 4 Ignacio Fernández Lobbe, 3 Santiago González Bonorino, 2 Álvaro Tejeda, 1 Marcos Ayerza.
Replacements: 16 Pablo Gambarini, 17 Juan Gómez, 18 James Stuart, 19 Álvaro Galindo, 20 Alfredo Lalanne, 21 Federico Martín Aramburu, 22 Federico Serra.
Scotland: 15 Hugo Southwell, 14 Chris Paterson, 13 Ben Cairns, 12 Graeme Morrison, 11 Simon Webster, 10 Phil Godman, 9 Mike Blair (captain), 8 Allister Hogg, 7 John Barclay, 6 Alasdair Strokosch, 5 Scott MacLeod, 4 Matt Mustchin, 3 Euan Murray, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Allan Jacobsen.
Replacements: 16 Dougie Hall, 17 Alasdair Dickinson, 18 Alastair Kellock, 19 Kelly Brown, 20 Rory Lawson, 21 Dan Parks, 22 Nick De Luca.
Date: Saturday, 14
June
Kick-off: 16.10 (19.10 GMT)
Venue: Estadio José Amalfitani (Vélez Sarsfield), Buenos Aires
Predicted weather conditions: Scattered clouds with a cool high of 13°C, dropping to 7°C and a wind of 18 km/h freshening just a little.
Referee: Alain Rolland (Ireland)
Touch judges: Alan Lewis (Ireland), Cobus Wessels (South Africa)
TMO: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)
