3N Preview: Three's a crowd
Tue, 01 Jul 2008 14:26
With the 2008 Tri-Nations tournament just days away, rugby365.com looks ahead to the annual southern hemisphere showpiece as world champions South Africa look to protect their crown against Australia and New Zealand.
Of course, the Springboks will have their hands full against the Wallabies and the All Blacks, both of whom made ignominious exits at the quarterfinals stage of the 2007 World Cup. The Australasians will be waiting for them and looking to knock them off their lofty perch - much like they did in 1996...
But all is not well Down Under; the All Blacks are missing key men through injuries and overseas moves, whilst Graham Henry has to prove himself on a weekly basis after not being fired in the aftermath of New Zealand's RWC blow-out.
The Wallabies, meanwhile, have a new coach in Robbie Deans and are trying to find a new identity under the former Crusaders mentor. Some of their old faces - Gregan, Larkham - are no longer around and Deans will be hoping the likes of Matt Giteau and Stirling Mortlock can carry their countryman forward in arguably the toughest rugby tournament in the world.
The Boks also have a new coach in former SA Under-21 boss Peter de Villiers, whose appointment wasn't received too well in his own country.
SA, too, are trying to come to grips with a new approach to the game and it will be interesting to see if De Villiers is able to persist with his romantic idea of changing the 'Bok way' if results don't go his way from the start.
One thing is for sure, the Boks are fully aware of the dangers that await them in New Zealand - and Australia - although their senior players are determined to win in NZ; something that was never achieved during Jake White's successful spell in charge.
Just this week, World Cup-winning lock Victor Matfield summed things up best, saying: "It's probably tougher coming here [to New Zealand] and getting a win against the All Blacks than winning a World Cup."
History speaks for itself in the Tri-Nations; South Africa have won just once in New Zealand since 1996, whilst Australia have managed one win only in SA in the same time. NZ are the most successful team in Tri-Nations history with eight titles in 12 years, with South Africa and Australia winning just twice.
But, as everyone knows, history is there to be changed and 2008 could just be the year.
The teams and their chances:
AUSTRALIA:
Coach: The Australian media wasted no time nicknaming Robbie Deans, 'Dingo', after he hopped across the Tasman to take on the Aussie coaching job. 'Catchy' nickname aside, New Zealander Deans is rated by many as the most astute and successful rugby coach in the world. Those who don't rate him would say his success at the Crusaders was based purely on a very talented squad at his disposal, but, now, without the likes of McCaw and Carter to call upon, Deans will truly be tested as he looks to put Australian rugby back on the map once again.
Captain: Probably the best outside centre in the southern hemisphere (with Jaque Fourie injured there is little else to choose from), Stirling Mortlock has been in charge of the Wallabies during some trying times... Of course, there was that World Cup quarterfinal loss to England, whilst the Wallabies have not tasted Tri-Nations success since 2001, but Mortlock has always led from the front - regardless of the situation - and expect much of the same in 2008.
Key man: We're going to break the mould here and list Robbie Deans as the key man for Australia... Nobody knows more about the likes of Greg Somerville, Richie McCaw, Dan Carter and Leon MacDonald than Deans, whilst plenty has been written about his appointment - both in Australia and New Zealand. The proof, however, is in the pudding and if Deans gets things right immediately, some people back in New Zealand could regret letting him go... and rightly so...
Key player losses since 2007: Matt Giteau is a wonderful talent and a pivotal figure in the No.10 shirt, but nobody will ever replace Stephen Larkham. 'Bernie', as the former Brumbies star is known in rugby circles, has left a gaping hole in Australian rugby since retiring after the World Cup. A playmaker extraordinaire, Larkham boasted a bucketload of experience with over 100 Test caps, as well as that uncanny ability to unlock any opposition defence. The Wallabies will also miss that warrior of a fullback, Chris Latham.
New kid on the block: Scrumhalf Luke Burgess very nearly helped the Waratahs to the Super 14 title this year and his form in Wallaby Gold has been pretty special too. In fact, whilst Larkham's retirement has left a void in the Wallaby backline, not many people seem to be mentioning the loss of George Gregan, which is a credit to young Burgess, who has made the Wallaby No.9 shirt his own after just two Tests.
Key fixture: With New Zealand and South Africa getting things started in early July, the Wallabies come into the equation in Round Three only when they host the Boks in Perth on July 19. The Wallabies have beaten the Boks just once in four matches at the Subiaco Oval and if they are not careful they could find themselves one-down with five Tri-Nations matches to play.
NEW ZEALAND:
Coach: According to the New Zealand Reader's Digest Most Trusted Person in 2008 poll, Kiwis trust Robbie 'Dingo' Deans more than their own national coach Graham Henry. To say Henry is not popular would be an understatement of mass proportions. To say the former schoolmaster is fortunate to still have a job, well, that's also probably more of an understatement... But like him or hate him, he is still in charge and he remains a bloody good coach - even if this Tri-Nations ends up being his last.
Captain: With Richie McCaw set to miss at least the first four rounds of the 2008 Tri-Nations with an ankle injury, long-time back row partner Rodney So'oialo finds himself entrusted with the captaincy early on. So'oialo has been an effective skipper at Super Rugby level, but he is a novice at this level - especially against a seasoned captain like John Smit and even Stirling Mortlock, both of whom boast way more leadership experience at Test level. So'oialo said this week that he would rely heavily on McCaw for guidance... It could be a long four weeks - for both men; playing and non-playing captain.
Key man: You cannot look further than the best No.10 in world rugby Dan Carter. He wins matches on his own with that deadly left boot of his or he simply rips the opposition apart when he decides to have a go with ball in hand. Feel free to use any adjective - the fact remains, Get Carter and it's your game, let him run free and the All Blacks will win.
Key player losses since 2007: Richie McCaw - need we say more? Also, add to that Anton Oliver, Carl Hayman, Jerry Collins, Byron Kelleher, Luke McAllister, Aaron Mauger and Doug Howlett - that's some big names missing.
New kid on the block: Adam Thomson is a good old-fashioned No.6 - a good ball-carrier, handy line-out option and punishing defender, but Jerry Collins he is not. A guy to watch, however - if he gets an opportunity during the Tri-Nations - is Chiefs centre Richard Kahui, who made a try-scoring debut against England last month. The No.13 position has been a problematic one for the Kiwis since Tana Umaga's retirement, but a fit Kahui could just be the right man for the job if he gets a chance.
Key fixture: There is no doubt that this weekend's Tri-Nations opener will set the tone for New Zealand's 2008 campaign. It smacks of 1998 when John Hart lost talismanic skipper Sean Fitzpatrick to injury and the All Blacks were 'Blackwashed' in the Tri-Nations, after losing at home to the Boks in... Wellington. The Kiwis won't want to start in the same fashion this time around.
SOUTH AFRICA:
Coach: He might not be everybody's cup of tea in South Africa, but give Peter de Villiers a chance. Two Tests against Wales and one against Italy in the rain is hardly enough to judge him on, so let's judge him on the Tri-Nations. There's been talk of a new gameplan and empowering his players, but don't be surprised if his approach changes before the end of the tournament. After all, Bok fans want victory - no matter how ugly it might be.
Captain: A year, especially in rugby, is a long time - in June 2007 some fans and pundits still had doubts over John Smit as a leader and as the first-choice hooker in South Africa. One hamstring injury later on June 16 and suddenly Smit's true value became that much more evident to the media and the public. Now, nearly 13 months later, Smit has been flown out from France to lead his team, with new coach De Villiers saying: "His experience is important. Early psychological battles must be won and those things do not affect a guy such as John."
Key man: Andrew David James to those close to him - but simply known as Butch to the rest of the country. The unsung hero in France last year, Butch James is pushing hard for recognition as his country's best post-isolation No.10. He's always had the ability to control a game - ever since his Bok debut in June 2001 - but the arrival of Eddie Jones last year as Jake White's technical advisor allowed James to take the step up and become a world-class player. He has not put a foot wrong since last year's World Cup and if he maintains that form this year, the Boks could just come away with their third Tri-Nations title.
Key player losses since 2007: Worryingly, the Springbok scrum is not what it used to be and for this reason one would have to say that Os du Randt is a loss. The non-availability of injured World Cup-winning backs Fourie du Preez (scrumhalf) and Jaque Fourie (outside centre) is not ideal - when fit both players are world-class - but the Boks appear in rude health otherwise.
New kid on the block: Former No.8 Tendai 'Beast' Mtawarira continues to impress since moving into the front row in 2006. He made an impressive Springbok debut against Wales in Pretoria this June, before winning the Man of the Match Award against Italy - in Cape Town - the following weekend. He is by no means the finished article, but if he continues to progress at his current rate, Os will be forgotten and 'Beast' will be the new name on everybody's lips.
Key fixture: You simply cannot look past this weekend's opener against the All Blacks. The Boks have not beaten the Kiwis in NZ since 1998 - at the old Athletic Park in Wellington - but they have never won at the Westpac Stadium in two previous attempts. They won't have a better chance than this year to win in New Zealand and if they take it, who's to say they can't break their duck at Carisbrook (Dunedin) the following weekend?
2008 TRI-NATIONS FIXTURES:
July 5: New Zealand v South Africa, Wellington
July 12: New Zealand v South Africa, Dunedin
July 19: Australia v South Africa, Perth
July 26: Australia v New
Zealand, Sydney
August 2: Australia v New Zealand, Auckland
August 16: South Africa v New Zealand, Cape Town
August 23: South Africa v Australia, Durban
August 30: South Africa v Australia, Johannesburg
September 13: Australia v New Zealand, Brisbane
