Preview: 3N, South Africa vs Australia
Fri, 29 Aug 2008 08:20
Beastly battle: Tendai Mtawarira tackles Wycliff Palu
For the first time the Australians will go up to the Witwatersrand brimming with confidence and in fact sitting pretty. For the Springboks there is the possibility of another humiliation on home soil, lumbered as they are with a game plan nobody seems to understand. A mysterious game plan may not be the best for a team needing to salvage some pride.
Pride they have, because less than a year ago they won the World Cup, but at Newlands a fortnight ago they started setting records no team wants to set - the first zero for the Springboks at Newlands since 1891. If that was bad things were worse in Durban. In neither match did their opponents have to play really well to beat them.
Then they had the humiliation of being the first Springbok team booed on home soil. How horrible is that! How demoralising!
They are also missing men - Bryan Habana, JP Pietersen, though his contribution has not been great of late, Bakkies Botha, CJ van der Linde and captain John Smit. For some there is a post World Cup ennui, a sort of triste, sadness after the great climax of their careers.
The Springboks are written off. That may just be the best place for them to be - South African rugby has ever been at its best when written off. And there is no reason why they cannot win, not with the huge talent they have in the side, talent which beat the world to the Webb Ellis Cup.
The Wallabies will go up over the Drakensberg without fear. They have broken the South African hoodoo. This is their chance to smash it to smithereens. They have beaten the Springboks twice. There is no reason why they should not do it again. And they have the impetus of having Rocky Elsom back from the brink of suspension.
So they have won just once in nine attempts at what used to be called Ellis Park and that was back in 1963. So what history needs to be made, and this year they are doing it in South Africa,
Those are the prizes in the game itself. There are prizes beyond that - a real chance to win the Tri-Nations for the first time since 2001. Win this match and they top the table but with New Zealand to play. Lose this and they still have the chance to win by beating the All Blacks in Brisbane. Either way the Brisbane match is about having to win.
Not that the Australians are likely to take it easy. That is not in the nation's nature. They compete to win, and they will be going flat out to win.
Up front they must be feeling confident. It must be a whole new experience for a Wallaby front row to be rubbing its hands gleefully but the thought of facing rookie Springboks from Zimbabwe must have them smacking their lips in joyful expectation.
They know they can win the line-out. They did not lose one in Durban, simply because the Springboks decided - for some bizarre reason - not to compete. The Springboks threw into 12 line-outs and won 7. They beat the Wallabies just 7-5 on their own throw and that with Victor Matfield, Andries Bekker, Juan Smith, Schalk Burger and Pierre Spies to throw to.
Then the Wallabies also know they can clean up at the tackle. They beat the same set of loose forwards hands down to the break down.
It's hard to play with no ball and the Wallabies would seem to have the ball with clever, fast and strong players to play with it.
They also have the same referee they had in Perth. He got cross with the Springboks then and they may well fall on the wrong side of him again.
There will be kicking, and the Wallabies have a greater variety of kickers, even without Berrick Barnes.
Highveld bogey? It shouldn't really be. after all 14 of the Springboks play their rugby at the coast anyway.
It's easy to see a Wallaby victory. And yet..................
Players to Watch: Of the Springboks certainly Jean de Villiers who really has the ability to cut the line and Beast Mtawarira who has rapidly become the big personality in South African rugby. Of the Wallabies you will watch Stirling Mortlock, a man big, strong and broad-shouldered enough to carry his team forward. Rugged Rocky Elsom who shows such determination, character and skill in his rugby.
Head to Head: There are many. But Schalk Burger against George Smith in the battle for the vital post-tackle ball, a contest which Smith won in Durban. And there could be an interesting tussle between two bustling hookers - Bismarck du Plessis and Tatafu Polota-Nau.
Results in Tri-Nations matches in South Africa
2008 : Australia won 27-15 at Absa Stadium, Durban
2007 : South Africa won 22-19 at Newlands
2006 : South Africa won 24-16 at Ellis Park, Johannesburg
2005 : South Africa won 22-16 at Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
2004 : South Africa
won 23-19 at Kings Park Stadium, Durban
2003 : South Africa won 26-22 at Newlands
2002 : South Africa won 33-31 at Ellis Park, Johannesburg
2001 : South Africa won 20-15 at Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
2000 : Australia won 19-18 at Kings Park Stadium, Durban
1999 : South Africa won 10-9 at Newlands
1998 : South Africa won 29-15 at Ellis Park, Johannesburg
1997 : South Africa won 61-22 at Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
1996 : South Africa won 25-19 at Vodacom Park, Bloemfontein
Prediction: The rugby ball is an odd shape and does perverse things. Let's imitate the rugby ball, throw logic out of the window and say that the Springboks will win by seven points or more. There is no reason why they cannot.
Teams:
South Africa: 15 Conrad Jantjes, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 Adrian Jacobs, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Jongi Nokwe, 10 Butch James, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre
Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield (captain), 4 Andries Bekker, 3 Brian Mujati, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Beast Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Danie Rossouw, 19 Luke Watson, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Ruan Pienaar, 22 Percy Montgomery.
Australia: 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Peter Hynes, 13 Stirling Mortlock, 12 Timana Tahu, 11 Lote Tuqiri, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Sam Cordingley, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Phil Waugh, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Hugh McMeniman, 4 James Horwill, 3 Matt Dunning, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Stephen Moore, 17 Al Baxter, 18 Dean Mumm, 19 George Smith, 20 Brett Sheehan, 21 Ryan Cross, 22 Drew Mitchell.
Date: Saturday, 30 August 2008
Kick-off: 15.00 (13.00 GMT)
Expected weather conditions: Scattered clouds with a high of
26°C dropping to 11°C and a northwester of 39 km/h, dropping.
Referee: Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Lyndon Bray (New Zealand), Rob Debney (England)
Television match official: Romain Poite (France)
Assessor: Bob Francis (New Zealand)
By Paul Dobson
