Preview: New Zealand v Ireland
Fri, 06 Jun 2008 08:40
Signing of the times: All Black captain Richie McCaw
Is New Zealand's national team vulnerable? Did the departure of almost a dozen leading players to the cash-flush European market cause enough of a dent in their player resources to give Ireland the opportunity of a first-ever win against the All Blacks?
These are just some of the questions that will be answered when Graham Henry's new-look Kiwi team take on a confident Irish side at Wellington's Westpac Stadium on Saturday.
New Zealanders are holding their collective breath to see if the All Blacks can bounce back from the World Cup disaster, which saw them exit in the quarterfinals.
The majority of Kiwis are also still wondering about the wisdom of the decision to retain Henry and his coaching staff after yet another failure on the world's grandest stage, the World Cup.
And with a assured Irish side looking to build on the Heineken Cup exploits of the victorious Munster province, there is an air of uncertainty in New Zealand.
Not even a 26-match unbeaten run on home soil - stretching back to England's 15-13 triumph in 2003 - have removed the dark clouds of doubt hovering over the 'Land of the Silver Fern'.
Very pertinent to Saturday's Test is Irish team's last visit to New Zealand, in 2006 - an Ireland side featuring 10 of the same players starting on Saturday.
The tourists led 16-8 at half-time and 23-15 soon afterwards, before the All Blacks stormed home to defend their unbeaten record against the Irish with a 34-23 victory.
In 20 Tests between the nations, Ireland's best result is a draw, the 10-10 result in Dublin in 1973.
Donncha O'Callaghan, who played in both of the 2006 tour games when Ireland came so close to an upset against the All Blacks, believes the squad are now better placed to thrive in those tight situations.
"If you ask any team, winning is kinda contagious, you get used to winning really close games. In the last 10 minutes, when you've been winning all season, you believe you can do it," O'Callaghan said.
"That has happened to us a bit at Munster and hopefully we can carry it on into [this weekend's game]. There is a self belief now that we can win tight games," he admitted.
"Hopefully, if Saturday is close, we might have the mental reserve where we didn't before.
"You look back two years ago and with nine minutes to go we were two or three points up and you don't get many opportunities like that against the All Blacks. You've got to take them when they come about."
Focusing on Saturday's game, the big Corkman is looking forward to locking horns with the All Black forwards, and in particular the second row pairing of Ali Williams and Brad Thorn.
"There's huge respect there, we have always respected the All Blacks forwards. Other people might run their mouths off but we certainly wouldn't.
"It's going to be hugely tough. We haven't seen a big amount of the Super 14 but with the Crusaders underway again and the huge amount of talent here.
"People go on about the amount of players who are leaving but you don't know about the stream of new guys coming in. It's a huge challenge for us but one we're ready for."
There is no doubt, as O'Gallaghan said, that you always respect the All Blacks, regardless of what team they put out.
It is something magical about that Black jersey with the Silver Fern, it raises a player to a new level.
That said, Ireland do have a golden opportunity to put one over the Kiwis, but only if they do the basics well and take their chances.
The opportunities will be few, as they are in Test rugby.
The basics are the set pieces - scrum and line-outs - securing clean ball at the breakdown and solid defending.
Slip up in any of those areas and your are gone.
This New Zealand team may look suspect, but there's enough talent to exploit whatever weakness the opposition display.
Players to watch:
For New Zealand: The return of Ma'a Nonu in the midfield gives the Kiwi backline a more robust look and no doubt he is going to run at the Irish defence all afternoon. Another player that will be looking to mark his return with a big performance is No.8 Jerome Kaino, while there is sure to be interest in how Rodney So'oialo will handle the shift from eighthman to blindside flank. Lastly, but certainly not the least, there is the return of veteran dual international Brad Thorn, a man who has been a standout player in the Super 14 and playing at lock - one position where New Zealand's resources have been severely depleted.
For Ireland: The late withdrawal of Luke Fitzgerald has put Paddy Wallace in the spotlight as Brian O'Driscoll's midfield partner - a key aspect of the Irish game. Of course the performance of Munster's all-conquering flyhalf Ronan O'Gara will also go a long way towards securing the Irish their first-ever win against the Kiwis. But it is up front where the likes of Paul O'Connell, Donncha O'Callaghan and Jerry Flannery will fan the flames of passion that the victory could be secured.
Head to head: In a Test match you could easily line up both teams in a head-to-head analysis, but some of the key battles on Saturday will be in midfield - where Conrad Smith (New Zealand) faces Brian O'Driscoll (Ireland) - at flyhalf, with Dan Carter (NZ) against Ronan O'Gara (Ireland), at the breakdown where openside flanks Richie McCaw (NZ) will face David Wallace (Ireland), along with the line-out battle of Ali Williams and Brad Thorn (NZ) against Paul O'Connell and Donncha O'Callaghan (Ireland). Those are all intriguing battles, but key elements of the game.
Last 10 results:
2006: New Zealand won 27-17, Auckland
2006: New Zealand won 34-23, Hamilton
2005: New Zealand won 45-7, Dublin
2002: New Zealand won 40-8, Auckland
2002: New Zealand won 15-6, Dunedin
2001: New Zealand won 40-29, Dublin
1997: New Zealand won 63-15, Dublin
1995: New Zealand won 43-19, Johannesburg (RWC)
1992: New Zealand won 59-6, Wellington
1992: New Zealand won 24-21, Dunedin
Prediction: You would be foolhardy to write off the Irish, but they are notoriously poor travellers. Talking a good game is one thing, but going out in the cauldron of a hostile New Zealand stadium and doing the job is easier said than done. We feel the Irish will again threaten and then falter. New Zealand to win a close game, by 10 points.
Teams:
All Blacks: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Anthony Tuitavake, 13
Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Jerome Kaino, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Rodney So'oialo, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 John Afoa, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Neemia Tialata.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 John Schwalger, 18 Anthony Boric, 19 Adam Thomson, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Leon MacDonald.
Ireland: 15 Robert Kearney, 14 Shane Horgan, 13 Brian O'Driscoll (captain), 12 Paddy Wallace, 11 Tommy Bowe, 10 Ronan O'Gara, 9 Eoin Reddan (Wasps), 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 David Wallace, 6 Denis Leamy, 5 Paul O'Connell, 4 Donncha O'Callaghan, 3 John Hayes, 2 Jerry Flannery, 1 Marcus Horan.
Replacements: 16 Rory Best, 17 Tony Buckley, 18 Mick O'Driscoll, 19 Shane Jennings, 20 Peter Stringer, 21 Geordan Murphy, 22 Girvan Dempsey.
Date: Saturday, June 7
Venue: Westpac Stadium, Wellington
Kick-off: 19.35
(07.35 GMT)
Conditions: Partly cloudy, with a possibility of showers and windy. Low 6°C, high 14°C
Referee: Chris White (England)
Touch judges: Nigel Owens (Wales), Matt Goddard (Australia)
TMO: Christophe Berdos (France)
