Preview: 3N - Springboks v All Blacks
Thu, 14 Aug 2008 23:44
Crunch time: Victor Matfield versus Richie McCaw
This is it - the showdown. If the All Blacks are to win the Tri-Nations, they must win this one. If the Springboks are to win the Tri-Nations, they must win this one. It's a massive match, perhaps the biggest in 2008. It's no wonder tickets were sold out long ago.
You would expect a sell-out. It's enough that the world's toughest rugby rivals meet. In addition the Springboks won the World Cup, causing New Zealand much resentment. In addition there is the carrot of the Tri-Nations trophy.
That South Africa won the last match is also an added spur to New Zealand's rugby pride.
That this one is in South Africa may suggest that the Springboks should be able to get rare back-to-back victories but it is not necessarily so. After all New Zealand leads South Africa 8-5 in South Africa. In South Africa.
Climate has not played a big role, and the Newlands climate will be the nearest to home for New Zealanders.
Home support? The All Blacks will get lots of support in Cape Town, encouraged by at least one member of the South African parliament, which New Zealanders would not understand.
South Africa won in Dunedin but it took a flash of individual genius to produce the victory and there have been crucial changes of personnel since then.
For a start Richie McCaw is back. He is back with his leadership, his skills and his strength. That is a huge return.
Secondly Greg Somerville is back at prop. So strong in Wellington, he was not chosen in Dunedin. Where the Springboks scrum had wobbled in Wellington it was firm in Dunedin.
Then, too, the early departure of Ali Williams after a head clash with Schalk Burger had a big effect on the match. He is back and laughing this time. The All Blacks also have iron man Brad Thorn back and Rodney So'oialo switched to his much preferred position.
The Springboks have good news and bad news. Fourie du Preez is back and he could be vastly influential. But then Bakkies Botha is missing and he was alone in the Springbok pack as an in-your-face, laughing-at-you strongman. That leaves Williams on his own.
It would seem that the All Blacks have had greater profit from personnel changes, especially if resourceful, competitive Jimmy Cowan can repeat his Auckland performance he produced against Australia.
Both teams should head into this with confidence - the All Blacks after their big win over the Wallabies as they shrugged off their lethargy and the Springboks after their nine-try win over the Pumas.
Both teams have a variety of kickers - left and right, tactical and at goal, long and clever, though Dan Carter - especially if he is not "intimidated" - is liable to best in all forms of kick.
Matches of this nature can turn on small things - a missed tackle, a dropped ball, an injury. The Springboks experienced that in Perth, the All Blacks in Dunedin. Equally victory can turn on small things - like the flash of inspiration Januarie had in Dunedin.
Players to Watch: You will watch action-man Schalk Burger (South Africa) with his reckless energy and you will watch relentless Richie McCaw (New Zealand). You will be excited when the ball heads its way to Bryan Habana (South Africa) or Sitiveni Sivivatu (New Zealand).
Head to Head: In every position there are match-ups but the biggest and most decisive head-to-head of all could be tight five against tight five. The All Blacks are expecting to win that one. If they do it could have a winning ripple effect right through their team and the way they are able to play.
But there are others - powerful but erratic Ma'a Nonu against the poacher Jean de Villiers; smooth Dan Carter against brusque Butch James; strong, fast, intuitive Fourie du Preez against combative Jimmy Cowan, the best defensive scrumhalf around; Richie McCaw against Schalk Burger; Victor Matfield against Ali Williams; Greg Somerville against Beast Mtawarira; and two great hookers in combat, both strong men who play every second of the game - Bismarck du Plessis against Andrew Hore.
You could go from one to 22 and tick off which individual you think will be better but in the end it's team against team with luck to decide.
Hopes for the game? Another great conflict with all the skills of great players on display and great respect for each other and the game of rugby football.
And there is the ardent hope that for Percy Montgomery his 100th Test on his home ground will be a grand occasion for him.
Previous Tri-Nations Results
2008: South Africa won 30-28 at Carisbrook, Dunedin
2008: New Zealand won 19-8 at Westpac Trust, Wellington
2007: New Zealand won 33-6 at Jade Stadium, Christchurch
2007: New Zealand won 26-21 at Absa Stadium, Durban
2006: South Africa won 20-21 at Royal Bafokeng Stadium, Rustenburg
2006: New Zealand won 45-26 at Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
2006: New Zealand won 35-17 at Westpac Trust, Wellington
2005: New Zealand won 31-27 at Carisbrook, Dunedin
2005: South Africa won 22-16 at Newlands
2004: South Africa won 40-26 at Ellis Park, Johannesburg
2004: New Zealand won 23-21 at Jade Stadium, Christchurch
2003: New Zealand won 19-11 at Carisbrook, Dunedin
2003: New Zealand won 52-16 at Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
2002: New Zealand won 30-23 at Kings Park Stadium, Durban
2002: New Zealand won 41-20 at Westpac Trust, Wellington
2001: New Zealand won 26-15 at Eden Park, Auckland
2001: New Zealand won 12-3 at Newlands
2000: South Africa won 46-40 at Ellis Park, Johannesburg
2000: New Zealand won 25-12 at
Jade Stadium, Christchurch
1999: New Zealand won 34-18 at Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
1999: New Zealand won 28-0 at Carisbrook, Dunedin
1998: South Africa won 24-23 at Kings Park Stadium, Durban
1998: South Africa won 13-3 at Athletic Park, Wellington
1997: New Zealand won 55-35 at Eden Park, Auckland
1997: New Zealand won 35-32 at Ellis Park, Johannesburg
1996: New Zealand won 29-18 at Newlands
1996: New Zealand won 15-11 at Lancaster Park, Christchurch
Prediction: New Zealand to win by more than five.
Teams:
South Africa: 15 Percy Montgomery, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Adrian Jacobs, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Butch James, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield (captain), 4 Andries Bekker, 3 CJ van der Linde, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17
Brian Mujati, 18 Danie Rossouw, 19 Luke Watson, 20 Enrico Januarie, 21 François Steyn, 22 Conrad Jantjes.
New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Richard Kahui, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Rodney So'oialo, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 John Afoa, 18 Anthony Boric, 19 Adam Thomson, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Isaia Toeava.
Date: Saturday, 16 August
Kick-off: 15.00 (13.00 GMT)
Venue: Newlands, Cape Town
Expected weather conditions: Scattered clouds clearing with a high of 18°C, dropping to 10°C and a southeaster of 10 km/h, freshening. Good weather for rugby on a perfect surface with packed stands.
Referee: Matt Goddard
(Australia)
Touch judges: Wayne Barnes (England), James Leckie (Australia)
TMO: Geoff Warren (England)
By Paul Dobson
