Preview: Wales vs New Zealand
Fri, 21 Nov 2008 00:55
Key man for Wales: Shane Williams
It used to be said of Wales that you never beat them, even if you scored more points than they did. They were always resilient and there were always reasons why they were in fact the better team.
The sentence would start with Chwarae teg, fair play, not that I'm biased, and then the explanation why the other side got more - undeserved - points than the brave Welsh.
One senses that something of that spirit is back in Wales. They again have men with magic feet and a sense of adventure. They have some strong men but whether they have the hard men of Wales's greatness is uncertain. One could not see those men with hard bodies and hard minds not beating the Springboks with 70 percent of the possession at their disposal.
Oh, how they would love to beat the All Blacks and make up for 1978 when they believe the All Blacks cheated. Imagine the folklore if they did win.
Of course, they can win. Whether they will is another matter.
They are more likely to attack with ball in hand than Ireland did and so are more likely to create chances for their backs and their loose forwards.
Given a fair chance the Welsh loose forwards should be able to give a good account of themselves even against the All Blacks' great trio. They should be given that chance by their sturdy front row. New Zealand must have breathed a sigh of relief when Tony Woodcock, cited, avoided suspension as playing Jamie Mackintosh in his place could have caused grievous problems.
Still the Welsh pack is going to have to be strong and brave because at the collisions the All Blacks will throw everything at them in a frenzy. If you are close by, even on your own side, you are likely to be dumped.
But then the Welsh pack beat the Springbok pack a fortnight ago and this is the same pack, most of whom had a rest for the Canada match.
The scrums may well go Wales's way, the line-outs are likely to be even and that leaves the battle for the loose forwards. The All Blacks have great variety in their play which may well mean that their loose forwards will get more chances to play.
The All Blacks would look to have the better inside backs while the differences between the two back-threes is interesting - skill and speed against size and speed with the balance in finishing ability going to Mils Muliaina, Joe Rokocoko and Sitiveni Sivivatu.
If, though it may be unlikely, it came down to goal-kicking, the battle, too could be even, but out of hand the All Blacks seem to have the longer and more creative kickers - and they will certainly chase. New Zealand have been more penalised than Wales (25-17) in the two matches so far, which does not mean that Jones will have more kicks at goal - unless Wales can play in All Black territory.
Players to watch:
For Wales: You will, with a shiver of excitement, watch Shane Williams who is due to thrill. You will be interested to see what teenager Leigh Halfpenny makes of it all - so much talent, such a big stage. But the Welshman who may well be the most watched is No.8 Andy Powell, so strong and effective against South Africa.
For New Zealand: You will see lots and lots of Dan Carter and revel in his class. You will see Ma'a Nonu of the gold-tipped mane, marauding about the park seeking whom he may bash.
Head to Head: Experience against genius, Stephen Jones against Dan Carter - not that Carter is inexperienced. Both have clever moments but Carter can be clever, strong and unpredictable. Expect him to win that battle. Is it cheat against cheat? There are people who would have it so - not that the Welsh think Martyn Williams cheats and not that the New Zealanders believe that Richie McCaw is anything but persecuted innocence. But there could be a good contest between these two clever players with the greater power of McCaw likely to prevail. There could also well be a good duel at scrumhalf - sturdy Gareth Cooper against mercurial, take-a-chance Jimmy Cowan. One thing is certain, Cowan would be better on defence. The most interesting clash may well be in the front rows. New Zealand are likely to find the Welsh more difficult than the Irish. They did not subdue the Irish, which could mean that the Welsh could just get the nudge on.
Recent Results
1988: New Zealand won 52-3 at Lancaster Park, Christchurch
1989: New Zealand won 34-9 at Cardiff Arms Park
1995: New Zealand won 34-9 at Ellis Park, Johannesburg
1997: New Zealand won 42-7 at Wembley Stadium, London
2002: New Zealand won 43-17 at Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
2003: New Zealand won 53-37 5-1 Stadium Australia, Sydney
2003: New Zealand won 55-3 at
Waikato Stadium, Hamilton
2004: New Zealand won 26-25 Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
2005: New Zealand won 41-3 at Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
2006: New Zealand won 45-10 at Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Prediction: The last time Wales won was in 1953 and it's hard to see them doing it again this year against this All Black side. Things can happen to change a match but even if the All Blacks lost Daniel Carter, Richie McCaw, Ali Williams and Rodney So'oialo in the first ten minutes it is hard to see Wales winning. We say New Zealand by more than 15 points.
Teams
Wales: 15 Lee Byrne, 14 Leigh Halfpenny, 13 Tom Shanklin, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Stephen Jones, 9 Gareth Cooper, 8 Andy Powell, 7 Martyn Williams, 6 Ryan Jones (captain), 5 Ian Evans, 4 Alun-Wyn Jones, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Matthew Rees, 1 Gethin Jenkins
Replacements: 16 Richard Hibbard, 17
John Yapp, 18 Luke Charteris, 19 Dafydd Jones, 20 Dwayne Peel, 21 James Hook/Dan Biggar, 22 Andrew Bishop
New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Richard Kahui, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Rodney So'oialo, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Neemia Tialata/ John Afoa, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Hikawera Elliot, 17 TBC, 18 Anthony Boric, 19 Kieran Read, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Isaia Toeava.
Date: Saturday, 22 November 2008
Kick-off: 17.15 (17.15 GMT)
Venue: Millennium Stadium, Cardiff
Weather: Irrelevant if they close the roof but expect decibels to rise in the enclosed space.
Referee: Jonathan Kaplan (South Africa)
Touch judges: Dave Pearson (England) , Cobus Wessels (South
Africa)
TMO: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)
