Preview: Australia v New Zealand
Fri, 30 Jul 2010 08:43
Large and in charge: All Black skipper Richie McCaw. (c) Gallo
What a prospect this match is! Miss it and spend the rest of your rugby days regretting it. It just could be greatest match of all time. If you look at the three Tri-Nations matches this year, it suggests that this will be a miraculous match between two evenly-matched, skilful and adventurous teams.
Apart from pride and the sheer thrill of playing there is a lot at stake.
Win this and the All Blacks will be near to certain of winning the Tri-Nations Cup - and then there is Lord Bledisloe's big cup which New Zealand would prefer to hang onto.
The sides look even, judging by the way both dynamited the Springboks and left them wrecked. Both sides played a high-intensity, fast, skilled, thrilling brand of rugby. If they replicate this in Melbourne we could see the greatest collisions ever in a Test match, the most adventurous running ever - a thrill a minute, a match you will want to treasure.
Both sides have the backs to thrill, though it is so sad that Quade Cooper will not be there with his dancing feet, confidence and derring-do.
If, as they did against South Africa, both sides prefer handling to kicking, using feet for running only, it could just be the fastest match ever played. Both sides have the forwards to destroy and create, to win first-phase ball and tackle ball. The contest at the tackle where fearless pack drives in at fearless pack, where turnovers will be of split-second timing, will be fierce.
The only possible blight on the game could be the falling Australian scrum. That's the only foreseeable brake on the game. Mind you the return of bulky Stephen Moore beefs up the Wallaby front row.
Compare individuals and units and there is not much in the game. Only in the front row do the All Blacks seem to have an edge. But then the Wallaby line-out looks better. The All Blacks centres look more likely to create holes but then remember the way Rob Horne tackled in Brisbane and Berrick Barnes is clever. The two sets of halfbacks look evenly-matched, especially if Matt Giteau can enhance his improved form of last weekend.
Kicking could count. Here the Wallabies seem to have more and greater variety, but then we imagine that there will be little kicking. There is not much to choose between the goal-kickers if Giteau stays on form.
The bench could make a difference and here the All Blacks seem to have the impact players rather than just replacements - Sam Whitelock, Victor Vito, Piri Weepu, Aaron Cruden and outrageous Israel Dagg. It is a bench that could make a difference, change the course of a game.
Players to Watch: Hard to choose because every back has the potential to catch the eye and so do loose forwards like David Pocock and Rocky Elsom, Richie McCaw and Kieran Read - and so do Stephen Moore, Keven Mealamu, Tony Woodcock and the Franks brothers - and the All Blacks bench. But if a choice must be made, there are always Will Genia and Cory Jane to delight.
Head to Head: The one everybody wants to see is David Pocock against Richie McCaw at the breakdown, the young pretender against the 'King of the Tackle'. McCaw may run better, Pocock may tackle better but it is the squabble for the tackled ball that people want to see.
Daniel Carter and Matt Giteau will resume their battle of verve and skill, and then there are clever-footed James O'Connor against long-striding Joe Rokocoko, strong Drew Mitchell against clever Cory Jane, two players who can make so much out of so little, strong, instinctive Will Genia against combative Jimmy Cowan.
In the front rows there could be an interesting tussle between awkward Benn Robinson and unbowed Owen Franks. In the centre there is a competition which also could be decisive - bustling Ma'a Nonu against Berrick Barnes who looks too fragile to handle the burly All Black and willowy Conrad Smith against determined Rob Horne.
In the end, however, the Head to Head is Australia against New Zealand.
Results this century:
2009: New Zealand won 32-19 at Olympic Stadium, Tokyo
2009: New Zealand won 33-6 at Westpac Trust, Wellington
2009: New Zealand won 19-18 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2009: New Zealand won 22-16 at Eden Park, Auckland
2008: New Zealand won 19-14 at Hong Kong Stadium
2008: New Zealand won 28-24 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
2008: New Zealand won 39-10 at Eden Park, Auckland
2008: Australia won 34-19 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2007: New Zealand won 26-12 at Eden Park, Auckland
2007: Australia won 20-15 at the Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne
2006: New Zealand won 34-27 at Eden Park, Auckland
2006: New Zealand won 13-9 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
2006: New Zealand won 32-12 at Jade Stadium, Christchurch
2005: New Zealand won 34-24 at Eden Park, Auckland
2005: New Zealand won 30-13 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2004: Australia won 23-10 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2004: New Zealand won 16-7 at Westpac Trust,
Wellington
2003: Australia won 22-10 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2003: New Zealand won 21-17 at Eden Park, Auckland
2003: New Zealand won 50-21 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2002: Australia won 16-14 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2002: New Zealand won 12-6 at Jade Stadium, Christchurch
2001: Australia won 29-26 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2001: Australia won 23-15 at Carisbrook, Dunedin
rugby365.com Prediction: Wouldn't it be wonderful if it were a match so thrilling that it did not matter who won. It may be a thrilling match but winning is going to matter and we predict that the All Blacks will win by more then five points.
The teams:
Australia: 15 Adam Ashley Cooper, 14 James O'Connor, 13
Rob Horne, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Will Genia, 8 Richard Brown, 7 David Pocock, 6 Rocky Elsom (captain), 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 Dean Mumm, 3 Salesi Ma'afu, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Saia Faingaa, 17 James Slipper, 18 Rob Simmons, 19 Matt Hodgson, 20 Luke Burgess, 21 Anthony Faingaa, 22 Kurtley Beale.
New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Joe Rokocoko, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Corey Flynn, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Sam Whitelock, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Israel Dagg.
Date: Saturday, 31 July 2010
Kick-off: 20.00 (10.00 GMT)
Venue: Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
Expected
weather conditions: Scattered clouds with a 30% chance of rain, a high of 15°C, dropping to 7°C and a wind from the north of 14 km/h - not that will affect the game with the roof closed.
Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Jonathan Kaplan (South Africa), Cobus Wessels (South Africa)
TMO: George Ayoub (Australia)
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