Can anybody catch the Kiwis?
Sun, 29 Aug 2010 22:08
Setting down a big marker! (c) Gallo
With New Zealand having set down a big marker in this year’s Tri-Nations series, the big question is: 'Can anybody catch them before the World Cup?'
There is no doubt the All Blacks' brand of positive and expansive play have contributed to their large winning margins and convincing victories - not to mention their current 14-match winning streak.
rugby365.com columnist Keith Moore chatted exclusively to former Hurricanes and All Black halfback Jon Preston about the strengths and weaknesses of the three SANZAR giants - New Zealand, South African and Australia, who also happen to be the three top-ranked teams in the world.
Preston, who played at both scrumhalf and flyhalf, represented New Zealand in 10 Tests between 1991 and 1997. His involvement at the International Rugby Academy of New Zealand (IRANZ) means he has stayed in touch with the changes in the game and what it takes to compete at the top level.
Preston believes that the mindset of the teams, and their approach to the game, is defining how well each has been doing in the Tri-Nations.
"I think the interpretations from the referees have clearly taken a more attacking approach," Preston told rugby365.com.
"The side that carries the ball is favoured now, which is the way it should be. In previous seasons they almost favoured the side that didn't have the ball which is crazy.
"It's a balancing act and the balance is not always easy to get 100 percent right, but it also changes from referee to referee as well. The fact is that all teams should now be entering each game knowing that [attacking rugby] is the general intent and you have to play accordingly."
The former All Black halfback felt that New Zealand's ability to adapt to the new law interpretations is what has helped them storm to such a strong position early on in the Tri-Nations, and that South Africa
will need to do the same in order to restore their winning culture.
"I think New Zealand in particular, and Australia to a degree, have adapted to the law interpretations better.
"The game has changed, and for me, South Africa seems to still be focused on a game that they dominated the world with a season or two ago. It worked outstandingly well for them in the past, but it's a game based totally on forward domination, intimidation and almost bullying to a point, and we have seen this year already that if they don't get that up front then they have looked pretty ordinary in other areas."
Preston felt that the tight forwards' inability to put up a marker up front is showing cracks that were previously not noticed, while the Boks were dominating in that area.
"South Africa has always had a very powerful front five, but I think there are one or two players perhaps getting a bit long in the tooth who don't have quite the same impact they used to have.
"The game has sped up because of the law interpretations and some of those players are never going to keep up with the pace of the game now. Without that front five domination, the loose forwards don't have the same impact because they aren't going off the front foot all the time, and they have been shown up in areas of their game outside of ball-in-hand play, where they don't seem to have quite the same intensity and work rate."
Just as the tight five set the tone for the forward game, so the halfbacks are tasked with sparking the backline, and Preston says the absence of one player in particular is hurting the Springboks.
"South Africa are missing Fourie du Preez massively. He runs the game for that team, and other players take confidence from that. If you look at Morné Steyn, beside the fact that South Africa doesn't have that forward domination at the moment, he also doesn't have Du Preez running the game inside him.
"I don't think he looks quite the same - he looks limited. He is a fantastic goal-kicker and a fantastic tactical kicker, but if you aren't dominating all-round then you need a little bit more than that for that team."
The Kiwi said that South Africa will need to do a few things differently looking towards the future, but that there is still time to make the changes in time for the World Cup 13 months away.
"I think they are going to be forced to make some sort of change, and that doesn't happen overnight either, it takes time," Preston said.
"The beauty for South Africa is that the World Cup is next year and not the end of this year, so they have got some time.
"There might be some personnel change here and there, but if anything it might be a slightly different approach to the game and a relook at the law interpretations and how they can effectively use those to their advantage to change their approach as individuals and as a group."
Preston pointed to the fact that it is more the game plan, and not the players, that needs to be changed.
"You have to remember that quality players don't just become non-quality players overnight," he said, adding: "It is a true test now, not just for the players but for the South African coaching staff as to how quickly they can change things to reinvigorate their game.
"They pretty openly stated that they were going to stick with the status quo, even after they were hammered in the first test against the All Blacks, and it has shown that the status quo isn't good enough for them at the moment."
Coming into the Tri-Nations as champions on the back of a 3-0 whitewash of the All Blacks, Preston said that other teams do find extra gears when playing the top sides in the world, and that the best in the world will always have a target on their backs - which has put added pressure on the Boks.
"That can happen when you tend to be really strong, as the South Africans teams have been in the Super 14 in the last couple of seasons.
"It's a bit of a false sense of security, where everything has worked so well for you and you have everyone doing what they do well. But we have seen that those sorts of things change very quickly in world rugby. It's a bit of a knife's edge as to which side of it you fall and how well you go, and those roles reverse on a regular basis.
"New Zealand picked up the mantle this year with the way they are playing the game, and South Africa has fallen off the pace a bit."
Few would argue that New Zealand are the pace setters of the world at the moment, but with that domination coming so far away from the World Cup, talk inevitably turns to the issue of whether or not the men in black are peaking too early.
"In New Zealand the All Blacks just can't win," Preston said.
"If they had been fumbling along this year and had been a bit of a mixture then people would have been moaning as well. I don't buy into the business of peaking too early to be honest, but I do buy into the fact that you can only peak so often in a year.
"New Zealand may be peaking at the moment and they might not be so flash at the end of the year, but I wouldn't be worried about that at all. The key is, in any given season, to peak at the right time, and that will be New Zealand's focus."
Preston hinted that one of the keys for the All Black success is a settled group of players being given a chance to express themselves.
"Significantly they have had a similar starting fifteen throughout this test year, and the players are all playing as though they are very much on the same page - there is tremendous confidence there.
"They are obviously all on song with the game plan and enjoying playing the type of rugby they are playing and they are all firing as a unit because of that, and that's what is making them so strong. I have always been a firm believer in fielding a core group of settled players.
"From a players perspective I can remember this well, and I still believe it now: the more you play together in combinations and the more you play together as a group, the better you become. I think you really need to focus on your top 22 or so, and you need to play those guys - certainly during a World Cup year, and at the World Cup - and just pray that not too many of them get injured. I think that's the only way you can win a World Cup these days."
The current approach is the complete opposite of the All Black preparations leading up the 2007 showpiece, with the coaching staff opting instead to develop almost two full sides capable of doing the job for the New Zealanders.
"I can totally understand why Graham Henry and co went through that process, because we all know these days there aren't many opportunities to give players outside your top 15 or 22 very good experience.
"You've got to slot them in somewhere and sometime, firstly to see if they can make the grade, and secondly to develop them as players because, like with anything, the more you play at the highest level the better you get and the more accustomed you get to it."
The former Hurricanes scrumhalf said that the issue of taking statistics at face value may have caused the All Blacks to lose focus in the last World Cup.
"I had heard that they one of the reasons they had taken that approach was because they had some research done which indicated that players couldn't play three weeks of intense Test-match rugby in a row, or something along those lines. So they probably took that information and based their campaign on that, and I think some of that information proved to be incorrect.
"That's the danger of purely relying on science and not factoring in human emotion. But they have obviously taken lessons out of it, and their approach this year has been very different."
The problem with having a core group of players around which to build your team is that they need to be well looked after to ensure that they are available for the big games, while still maintaining that winning momentum.
Getting that balance right will be a huge focus for Graham Henry.
"It will be interesting to see. Some of the All Blacks might be pretty quiet throughout the Super 15 and the lead-up Tests. They might just build it slowly because everything will be geared towards firing at 100 percent come the opening game of next year's World Cup.
"They could fire for a wee while this year, or they might have a bit of a lull. For me it's neither here nor there; the key is getting it right at World Cup time.
"Though the advantage of playing as well as they are at the moment is that it breeds confidence and a realisation within a group of players about how well they can play, but they will still be striving to get better and better - which they will need to do to win that World Cup."
Preston said that with the players, coaching staff and winning mentality that the All Blacks currently have working for them, there will be few excuses if the trophy isn't in New Zealand hands come October next year.
"With everything they have been through and all the lessons they have learned; you couldn't have a better crack at it. They have a great opportunity now to go through this process and there are no excuses not to put together the best campaign possible for next year's World Cup.
"If we don't win it, so be it, but it would come down to either very bad luck, or the simple fact that they aren't good enough."
Despite that fact that New Zealand have been winning by playing a positive brand of rugby, Preston doesn't believe that the emphasis on defence has completely gone from the game.
"[All Black assistant coach Wayne Smith said in the papers that they are playing a very attacking brand of rugby, but ultimately it is hard to see defence not being important in a World Cup. It has always been the case, and will still be the case next year; how well you defend often dictates how well you do in the big games in those events.
"So they know that while they are playing brilliant, attacking rugby at the moment, they might have to change some things and some areas they will have to tinker with. I'm not saying there will be less focus on attack but there might be even greater focus on their defensive game."
Though with all the theories that will be included in each country's campaign, Preston concludes by saying that the big-game outcomes are so difficult to choose due to the fact that each of the top countries have the ability to knock the other ones over at any given game.
How a team acts in the do-or-die games will be ultimate indicator of who will take the crown, and in that sense, all the big teams will be starting on an even playing field.
"When it comes down to one-off events, there is invariably very little between the top teams in rugby," Preston said, adding: "If you catch one of those top teams and they have a great day, they can be extremely hard to beat.
"Like with South Africa, when you are dominating other teams they will lift themselves to their absolute best to beat you; it becomes harder to stay on top once you get on top. New Zealand have to face that in World Cups, but other teams do too and ultimately there are no excuses, you just have to do the job."
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