Preview: 3N, Australia v New Zealand
Thu, 24 Jul 2008 23:30
The big prize: The Bledisloe Cup is on display in Sydney
The Tri-Nations is up for grabs, and this is yet another big one in Sydney on Saturday when Australia and New Zealand meet at the packed ANZ Stadium, the venue with the impartial name, formerly Telstra Stadium, born Stadium Australia.
A bank common to both countries gave the stadium its name and both sides will be striving with might and main to bank a win on Saturday evening. It will be a big pay-out for the winner. Not only will it enhance his chances of winning the Tri-Nations but also the Bledisloe Cup for the match doubles as a leg of Lord Bledisloe's massive cup.
It will be a big evening in Sydney.
It is a match both sides have every reason to believe that they can win as they both try to regain prestige after a poor showing in last year's World Cup.
Both sides have beaten Ireland and both sides have beaten South Africa. New Zealand it is true have also lost to South Africa which may prove a dent to their confidence.
Both sides have lost a skipper. Richie McCaw is still absent and Stirling Mortlock is absent. That is a blow to both teams as they are both fine players and fine leaders.
As players the match will miss yet another scrap for the tackle ball between McCaw and George Smith who is captaining the Wallabies. At centre, too, there would be a contest between big, direct Mortlock and the big, skilled new man Richard Kahui.
When the Wallabies beat the Springboks, their forwards were the decisive difference. When the All Blacks beat the Springboks in Wellington, their forwards were the decisive difference. It could happen again on Saturday that the forwards will decide who wins.
Even with Ali Williams back the Wallabies are expected to win the line-outs, even with their starting XV but even more so should Daniel Vickerman rise from the bench to play.
It is a fair bet that there will be more line-outs than scrums but scrums are more telling than line-outs in the matter of morale. There is nothing quite as sapping as being overpowered in the scrums. The scrums could be a problem as they were in Perth last week as this is the Land of the Falling Scrum. The All Blacks have powerful Brad Thorn back in their second row and they have masterly Greg Somerville back in the front row. Those two are certain to make life hard for the Wallaby front row which still has Al Baxter.
Both sets of loose forwards have men who can fetch, run and tackle. The Wallabies seem to have the best fetcher in George Smith (and they have Phil Waugh in reserve) and the best runner in Rocky Elsom. Both sides will be looking to improved performances from their No.8s. That suggests a Wallaby superiority at loose forward but they depend a great deal on how comfortable their tight forwards make their job and how much their backs get them into the game.
Both sides have backs who can kick and run. The tactical kicking duel could be fascinating but Daniel Carter seems better equipped at kicking for goal. There is nothing much between the wings, though the Australians may be more industrious, but the All Blacks may have the edge at centre and do have the edge at fullback.
The stage is set for lots and lots of drama.
Player to Watch: Every one of them whenever they are on the field but the men who may most catch the eye are Matt Giteau and George Smith of Australia and Daniel Carter and Ali Williams of New Zealand. Giteau and Carter both had quiet games against the Springboks. Carter is unlikely to be as intimidated (= frightened) as he was against the Springboks who he thought were brutal. Smith ruled the tackle in Perth and he could do so again in Sydney. Williams may well be the commanding presence in the All Black pack, part abrasive enforcer and part skilled athlete.
Head to Head: Again there is a fascinating match-up in every position.
There are three obvious battles which could have a bearing on the eventual result - flyhalf against flyhalf, outside centre against outside centre and fetcher against fetcher. With names that means Matt Giteau of Australia against Daniel Carter of New Zealand, rugged Ryan Cross of Australia against smooth Richard Kahui of New Zealand and George Smith of Australia against Daniel Braid of New Zealand. There are several other match-ups but those are the ones that could really count.
There is one more - Ben Robinson of Australia against Greg Somerville of New Zealand. It would be a surprise if the New Zealand front row was as ordinary as it was against the Springboks or the Wallaby front row as good as it was against the Springboks.
But just think of Ma'a Nonu heading for Berrick Barnes who does not lack courage, of Andrew Ellis snapping at Luke Burgess who needs an improved game, of the battle of two excellent hookers in Stephen Moore and Andrew Hore. We have not even mentioned the threat that each wing has in his armoury. Or the way the two quiet captains go about their work of leading from the front.
Previous Tri-Nations results:
2007: New Zealand won 26-12 at Eden Park, Auckland
2007: Australia won 20-15 at Cricket Ground, Melbourne
2006: New Zealand won 34-27 at Eden Park, Auckland
2006: New Zealand won 13-9 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
2006: New Zealand won 32-12 at Jade Stadium, Christchurch
2005: New Zealand won 34-24 at Eden Park, Auckland
2005: New Zealand won 30-13 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2004: Australia won 23-18 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2004: New Zealand won 16-7 at Westpac Trust, Wellington
2003: New Zealand won 21-17 at Eden Park, Auckland
2003: New Zealand won
50-21 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2002: Australia won 16-14 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2002: New Zealand won 12-6 at Jade Stadium, Christchurch
2001: Australia won 29-26 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
2001: Australia won 23-15 at Carisbrook, Dunedin
2000: Australia won 24-23 at Westpac Trust, Wellington
2000: New Zealand won 39-35 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
1999: Australia won 28-7 at Stadium Australia, Sydney
1999: New Zealand won 34-15 at Eden Park, Auckland
1998: Australia won 27-23 at Jade Stadium, Christchurch
1998: Australia won 24-16 at Cricket Ground, Melbourne
1997: New Zealand won 36-24 at Carisbrook, Dunedin
1997: New Zealand won 33-18 at Cricket Ground, Melbourne
1996: New Zealand won 32-25 at Lang Park, Brisbane
1996: New Zealand won 43-6 at Athletic Park, Wellington
Prediction: Australia are confident after Perth. New Zealand know that the Australian victory gives them a chance of winning the Tri-Nations. We predict a victory for New Zealand by more than five points.
Teams:
Australia: 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Peter Hynes, 13 Ryan Cross, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Lote Tuqiri, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 George Smith (captain), 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Nathan Sharpe, 4 James Horwill, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 Matt Dunning, 18 Daniel Vickerman, 19 Phil Waugh, 20 Sam Cordingley, 21 Timana Tahu, 22 Drew Mitchell.
New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Anthony Tuitavake, 13 Richard Kahui, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Jerome Kaino, 7 Daniel Braid, 6 Rodney So'oialo, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 John Afoa, 18 Anthony Boric,
19 Sione Lauaki, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Conrad Smith.
Date: Saturday, 26 July 2008
Kick-off: 20.05 (10.05 GMT)
Venue: ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Expected weather conditions: Clear with scattered clouds later, a high of 18°C, dropping to 9°C and a breeze - perfect rugby weather.
Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Touch judges: Mark Lawrence (South Africa), James Bolabiu (Fiji)
TMO: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)
By Paul Dobson
