S14 Preview: Round Five, Part One
Wed, 10 Mar 2010 21:59
Powerhousew pack: The Chiefs\' scrum needs to perform
We move into Round Five of the Super 14 with the Bulls the only unbeaten team left and the next five teams within a hair's breadth of one another.
The Chiefs, Stormers, Hurricanes, Crusaders and Brumbies have each won three games out of four and the top half of the log already provides a tight race. The early indication from the congestion below the Bulls on the log is that come May, the competition for the four semi-final spots may be closer than ever.
With the Cheetahs and the Blues enjoying byes, there are six games this weekend, two on Friday, three on Saturday and one on Sunday. This preview looks at the first three games.
Friday sees another New Zealand domestic derby as the Crusaders travel from South Island to North Island to take on the Chiefs in Hamilton. We have the Lions visiting Sydney to play the Waratahs, and the Sharks are up against the Brumbies in Canberra.
The clash in Hamilton could be a cracker of a game between the two great rivals - Canterbury-based and Waikato-based. The two South Africa vs Australia encounters could be fascinating too, especially with the two visiting teams desperate for their first wins of the year, and both smarting from getting the rough end of controversial refereeing decisions last weekend.
The Lions and Sharks are somewhat under siege, not least of all from their own supporters, and their determination to start a process of redemption after miserable starts to their Super 14 campaigns will be enormous.
Friday, March 12:
Chiefs v Crusaders
(Waikato Stadium, Hamilton - 19.35, 06.35 GMT)
The Crusaders were the Chiefs’ first-ever opponents in Super Rugby, with current Chiefs' head coach Ian Foster kicking a late penalty goal to secure a 27-26 win over a Crusaders' team which included the present Crusaders' head coach Todd Blackadder. Two of the assistant coaches, Craig Stevenson of the Chiefs and Daryl Gibson of the Crusaders, also played in that Super 12 game in 1996.
The Crusaders come to North Island having won 10 Super games against the Chiefs, who have won four. And the Crusaders have won four out of seven clashes in Hamilton, indicating that they will not be intimidated by the Waikato Stadium crowd.
For the visitors, Kahn Fotuali’i starts at scrumhalf in place of Andy Ellis (head knock last week) and at lock Isaac Ross has been selected ahead of Sam Whitelock.
For the home team, Craig Clarke replaces Culum Retallick at lock and at hooker Aled de Malmanche plays in place of Hika Elliot (hamstring strain).
Last Friday’s surprise defeat to the Reds broke a six-game unbeaten run by the Chiefs at Waikato Stadium, and they will be hard-pressed to prevent two losses in a row. This Crusaders team has stumbled only once this season - also against the Reds.
Foster said during the week: "We’re looking forward to our first New Zealand derby game, as they are always intense and competitive. I expect a real lift in our intensity, back to the levels we achieved in the first couple of weeks. Certainly there were some individuals last week that didn’t get to the level they would have wanted."
The strongest weapon in the home team's arsenal is their back three, with Sitiveni Sivivatu having scored 39 Super tries, Lelia Masaga 23 tries and skipper Malili Muliaina 28 tries. That's a phenomenal record from one unit in a team. The Crusaders' back three, comprising Jared Payne, Sean Maitland and Zac Guildford, is highly talented but relatively inexperienced.
That match-up will be fascinating, as will be that between flyhalves Stephen Donald and Daniel Carter. The battle among loose forwards Colin Bourke, Tanerau Latimer and Liam Messam of the Chiefs and Kieran Read, George Whitelock and Richie McCaw of the Crusaders, will be worth watching too.
Best of all may be the contest at outside centre between the Chiefs' All Black Richard Kahui and the Crusaders' former New Zealand U19 captain and IRB U19 player of the year Robbie Fruean, who is fast developing into one of the bolters of the competition.
In his column on the Crusaders' website, Blackadder describes Muliaina, Sivivatu and Masaga as a "magic back three...these players all have the ‘X-factor’ and are very exciting ball runners".
He added: "The Chiefs were finalists in this competition last year and have a lot of experience. They hit a bit of turbulence in that loss to the Reds but who hasn’t in this competition?
"You can’t afford to take the foot off the accelerator. It’s a short turnaround for us so we have to get everything exactly right.
"It’s no secret that we will be trying to get on top up front and putting pressure on their dangerous backs with our defence. They will be tough to beat, especially in Hamilton," the Crusaders head coach added.
Neither team has a tight five likely to dominate, but with two strong defensive teams, two superb loose trios and exciting attacking backs on either side, this game could be a classic encounter.
Super 14 results:
2009: Crusaders won 19-13 (Christchurch)
2008: Chiefs won 18-5 (Hamilton)
2007: Chiefs won 30-24 (Christchurch)
2006: Crusaders won 25-19 (Hamilton)
rugby365.com Prediction: The loss of Andy Ellis is a setback for the visitors but these are two evenly matched teams and it may come down to how well the Chiefs' back three perform with ball in hand or how tightly they can be contained, plus the goal-kicking of Donald and Carter. McCaw will have gone some way to ridding himself of the rust from his sabbatical and Carter remains the biggest X-factor in the clash. In what most expect to be a closely-contested encounter, these two players may just swing it, and we'll go with a narrow Crusaders victory - by five or seven points perhaps.
Teams:
Chiefs: 15 Mils Muliaina (captain), 14 Lelia Masaga, 13 Richard Kahui, 12 Callum Bruce, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Stephen Donald, 9 Brendon Leonard, 8 Colin Bourke, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Romana Graham, 4 Craig Clarke, 3 Nathan White, 2 Aled de Malmanche, 1 Sona Taumalolo.
Replacements: 16 Vern Kamo, 17 Ben Afeaki, 18 Culum Retallick, 19 Luke Braid, 20 Junior Poluleuligaga, 21 Mike Delany, 22 Dwayne Sweeney.
Crusaders: 15 Jared Payne, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Robbie Fruean, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Kahn Fotuali’i, 8 Kieran Read, 7 George Whitelock, 6 Richie McCaw (captain), 5 Isaac Ross, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Ti'i Paulo, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Corey Flynn,
17 Ben Franks, 18 Sam Whitelock, 19 Thomas Waldrom, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Adam Whitelock, 22 Colin Slade.
Referee: Mark Lawrence (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Chris Pollock (New Zealand), Matthew Stanish (New Zealand)
TMO: Ben Skeen (New Zealand)
Waratahs v Lions
(Sydney Football Stadium - 19.40, 08.40 GMT)
Carlos Spencer is back for the Lions. Can he spark a team revival and help set up their first win of the season? The only player from the Super 12 inaugural season still active in the competition, Spencer will be playing in his 100th Super game on Friday.
Phil Waugh achieves a milestone too. Having matched Chris Whitaker’s all-time appearance record for New South Wales last weekend, Waugh assumes sole ownership of the record by playing his 119th match. And he will be leading the side for the 40th time, tying Whitaker for that achievement.
The Lions arrive in Sydney having lost all seven previous away matches to the Waratahs by a margin of 13 points or more, with a 3-50 drubbing in 2006 their heaviest defeat.
The Lions, and their predecessors as the Johannesburg-based franchise, the Cats and before that Transvaal, have never defeated the Waratahs in Sydney and they have also not managed to score a try in their last two visits to the city. The last time the Johannesburg side defeated the Waratahs was in 1997 when Transvaal won 36-27 at Ellis Park.
The Lions have conceded the most tries of any team in the competition this year, and the Waratahs will view this game as an opportunity to win well and earn a bonus point for four tries. On the other hand, the Lions have scored 13 tries, which is four more than has been managed thus far by the Waratahs.
The Waratahs are under pressure from their supporters - who are threatening in their thousands to avoid attending games at Sydney Football Stadium - to desert their conservative game plan and to play more attractive rugby. While their primary aim is to win games, the 'Tahs are aware of what dwindling spectators numbers will mean and the pressure to offer entertainment while winning is strong.
They will want to attack with greater conviction and variation, and most of all with more skill. The Lions have been effective on attack, if erratically so, and their goal will be to offer far tighter defence.
There are no changes to the Waratahs starting line-up for this week, while the Lions have again made a host of changes - but for them every change would appear to strengthen the team.
Waratahs' head coach Chris Hickey said the team knows they will be in for a tough encounter. "We copped a scare against the Lions at Ellis Park last year and they certainly showed against the Chiefs in Round Two that they have a lot of points in them. That said, we're going into this match confident of a strong attacking performance and we're hoping to give the crowd at the SFS a great showing on Friday night."
Hickey said the squad would be looking to move up a gear from last weekend's 25-21 victory over the Sharks with the comfort of not having to endure a week of travel.
Lions' Director of Rugby Dick Muir said the Waratahs were different from other Australian teams because they play more conservatively, using more of a kicking game. But Muir said that with the criticism the Waratahs had endured at home, he believed they would "want to play a little more rugby".
"Then again, that will create more opportunities for us and we have to make the most of it," said Muir.
Super 14 results:
2009: Waratahs won 38-33 (Johannesburg)
2008: Waratahs won 26-3 (Sydney)
2007: Waratahs won 25-16 (Johannesburg)
2006: Waratahs won 50-3 (Sydney)
rugby365.com Prediction: If the Lions can balance their at times effective attacking game with tighter defence, they could come close to scoring an upset win. But if the Waratahs can adjust their game plan to attack more effectively and score more tries, they could win well. The Lions will test the home team's defence, but we take the Waratahs to win - not all that convincingly but with a bit to spare, perhaps by 10 or 12 points.
Teams:
Waratahs: 15 Sosene Anesi, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Tom Carter, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Daniel Halangahu, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Phil Waugh (captain), 6 Dave Dennis, 5 Kane Douglas, 4 Dean Mumm, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Damien Fitzpatrick, 17 Sekope Kepu, 18 Will Caldwell, 19 Ben Mowen, 20 Josh Holmes, 21 Kurtley Beale, 22 Rob Horne.
Lions: 15 Earl Rose, 14 Tonderai Chavhanga, 13 Walter Venter, 12 Doppies la
Grange, 11 Wandile Mjekevu, 10 Carlos Spencer, 9 JP Joubert, 8 Todd Clever, 7 Derick Minnie, 6 Cobus Grobbelaar (captain), 5 Willem Stoltz, 4 Franco van der Merwe, 3 Kevin Buys, 2 Hannes Franklin, 1 Heinke van der Merwe.
Replacements: 16 Charles Emslie, 17 JC Janse van Rensburg, 18 Jacques Lombaard, 19 Robert Kruger, 20 Jano Vermaak, 21 Burton Francis, 22 Wigan Pekeur.
Referee: Vinny Munro (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Ian Smith (Australia), James Leckie (Australia)
TMO: George Ayoub (Australia)
Saturday, March 13:
Brumbies v Sharks
(Canberra Stadium - 19.40, 08.40 GMT)
On the one side we have the stability of the home team.
The Brumbies have won three games out of four, losing only to the defending champions, the Bulls, at altitude in Pretoria - and they scored 32 points against the Bulls that day.
They have named an unchanged 22-man squad, the third time since 2000 that the Brumbies have named an identical line-up (including replacements) for three consecutive matches. The Brumbies have won their past two matches with the current squad, impressively edging out the Stormers 19-17 at Newlands and largely unimpressively beating the Lions 24-13 last weekend at Canberra Stadium. Brumbies' head coach Andy Friend acknowledges that naming the same squad gives his side stability.
On the other side we have the Sharks, a team under siege having played four, lost four so far this year. In total they have won only six out of 25 matches in Australia. They have not won at Canberra Stadium since their 41-23 victory in 1998 but some consolation is that in all matches played, they lead the Brumbies by eight wins to seven.
The Sharks have lost the last four of their last five matches on the road. And amazingly, they have won only twice since beating the Brumbies in Durban last year - and at that stage, they were on top of the log. Such are their current problems that the five try haul the Sharks achieved against the Brumbies in 2009 is two more than they’ve managed in total from four games in 2010.
Friend commented during the week: "Last week [against the Lions] we were a bit off. I guess part of that could be put down to travelling back from South Africa, part of it could be put down to the wet conditions, but these factors are realities of playing in this competition and we need to be better than that.
"The pleasing aspect was that we did create several opportunities that unfortunately weren’t converted. The intent is definitely there which is fantastic; now we need to improve on transferring those opportunities onto the scoreboard."
Looking at the Sharks, Friend said: "Teams like the Sharks don’t give you too many chances and we need to make sure that we’re converting any chance we get. We’re certainly not reading anything into their position on the table; they’re a side full of Springboks and, as we found out last season, they’re capable of running over the top of you if you give them that chance."
Sharks' head coach John Plumtree said during the week that his team would carry on fighting for their first win and he hoped they would get on a roll after that. He expressed disappointment at refereeing decisions last weekend and said he felt that the Sharks were starting to look like the team they want to be.
"There were some good signs of us getting our game going again but we are still not accurate enough," he said.
The aim this week will be to attain that accuracy - and to improve their discipline.
"I was very annoyed with our discipline and have been for a while. I read the riot act to the guys in our post-match analysis. I told the guys that the next player to get a yellow card gets a red card from me," said Plumtree.
The Brumbies conceded only one defeat at the Canberra Stadium in 2009, a 16-25 loss to the Western Force. Can the Sharks beat them on Saturday?
They certainly have the players to do so. They are an astutely coached team, with strong player leadership. This means that if their discipline is sound, they build phases and can finish what they create - and they offer composure and patience - there is no reason for them not to achieve their first victory in the competition.
But the Brumbies are a streetsmart team with an excellent balance between structure and flair and they will be a tough nut to crack at home.
Super 14 results:
2009: Sharks won 35-14 (Durban)
2008: Brumbies won 27-21 (Canberra)
2007: Brumbies won 21-10 (Durban)
2006: Brumbies won 35-30 (Canberra)
rugby365.com Prediction: Expect the Sharks to play like a team desperate for a win - but it will be crucial that they remain calm and do not resort to frenetic attacking endeavour. Expect the Brumbies to be composed and confident on attack and defence. The composure of the home team may just edge out the desperation of the visitors. It would not be a surprise if the Sharks were to pull off a win, but the more likely scenario is a narrow win for the Brumbies - by just a handful of points.
Teams:
Brumbies: 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Pat McCabe, 13 Stirling Mortlock, 12 Christian Lealiifano, 11 Francis Fainifo, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Josh Valentine, 8 Stephen Hoiles, 7 George Smith, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Mark Chisholm, 4 Ben Hand, 3 Salesi Maafu, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Ben Alexander.
Replacements: 16 Huia Edmonds, 17 Guy Shepherdson, 18 Justin Harrison, 19 Mitchell Chapman, 20 Patrick Phibbs, 21 Matt Toomua, 22 Tyrone Smith.
Sharks: 15 Stefan Terblanche, 14 Odwa
Ndungane, 13 Adrian Jacobs, 12 Riaan Swanepoel, 11 JP Pietersen, 10 Andy Goode, 9 Ruan Pienaar, 8 Ryan Kankowski, 7 Willem Alberts, 6 Jacques Botes, 5 Johann Muller, 4 Steven Sykes, 3 John Smit (captain), 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Craig Burden, 17 Jannie du Plessis, 18 Alistair Hargreaves, 19 Jean Deysel, 20 Keegan Daniel, 21 Rory Kockott, 22 Waylon Murray.
Referee: Garratt Williamson (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Paul Marks (Australia), Simon Moore (Australia)
TMO: Matt Goddard (Australia)
By Len Kaplan
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