Preview: Air NZ Cup, quarterfinals
Thu, 09 Oct 2008 13:18
It is play-off time. It is when rugby separates its men from the boys. The fairytale writers will look to Tasman, Southland, Hawke's Bay and maybe even Taranaki for their inspiration.
The real question, however, is will the big guns like Canterbury, Wellington Lions and Waikato enhance their reputations now that their All Blacks are starting to filter back into the team frames.
The weekend start with the most intriguing of all the quarterfinals - Canterbury against their now saved franchise partner Tasman.
Canterbury, a shock loss to Manawatu in Round One, has now won nine on the trot and looks near unstoppable - even if they do have Richie McCaw sitting on the bench.
If the oddity of that loss in Week One is taken out of the equation, the red-and-blacks' have the most impressive defensive form in the tournament - conceding less than a try a game.
However, they face a Tasman that has shown great resilience in overcoming all the boardroom drama and the usual challenges on the field. Few will argue against a statement that the Makos deservedly made the last eight.
No doubt Canterbury will look to its strong tight five to lay the platform, while the loose trio - with impressive No.8 and captain Kieran Read the star performer - the key to unlocking the Tasman defence.
For Tasman their biggest impact will come from All Black lock Brad Thorn.
As Tasman coach Todd Blackadder said: "He got himself here in the team photo, his timing is impeccable."
However, it is his brute force that will be most valuable in the tight exchanges.
In another franchise derby the Wellington Lions takes on Hurricanes partners Taranaki in the first of Saturday's two games.
Taranaki is another of the teams who came back from the dead to sneak into the play-offs - with Northland kicking a last-minute penalty goal last week to knock Auckland out and open the way for the amber and blacks.
But they will do well to ignore Wellington's 21-36 loss to Otago in Dunedin last week. Even with Rodney So'oialo on the bench, the Lions look like the team that swept the boards all season.
Yes, many will see the game as a Hurricanes trial.
However, Taranaki has nothing to lose. Everyone is tipping Wellington to go all the way and claim the title. The visitors can just go out end enjoy themselves.
And anything is possible.
The second of the Saturday games has the impressive Bay of Plenty Steamers up against the somewhat fortuitous Southland.
Steamers manager Sean Horan described the season as "a long journey".
However, that journey is far from over. In fact they are about to enter a very tricky home stretch.
Horan said that the players are "truly believing" that they can win to advance to the semifinals.
While BoP defeat Southland a fortnight ago in the league stages, that result will have no bearing on Saturday's showdown - with even Horan admitting that "the slate has been wiped clean".
The key to the Steamers' success has been pride and passion, but then that is also what makes the Stags tick.
The most telling statistic for the visitors is the column that reads 'tries scored'.
The game is still about scoring more points and tries than opposition teams and in the case of Southland, they have managed that on just 11 occasions from 20 round-robin games during the past two seasons. The Stags do make it extremely hard on themselves.
The wins generally have come from tight defence and sound goal-kicking.
No doubt Southland will have to find that attacking edge if they are to kick on in the play-offs.
Then it is onto Sunday, when the very impressive Hawke's Bay outfit taking on an ever-improving Waikato outfit.
It is the second year in succession the Magpies will face Waikato in the Air New Zealand Cup quarterfinals at McLean Park in Napier.
And Hawke's Bay are chasing their fourth successive win over the 2006 provincial champions.
Not surprising that there has been little in terms of pre-match banter coming from the home team, who are quietly confident of again going on to play in the semifinals.
"We're at full strength, I can't ask for anything more," was coach Peter Russell's most telling comment.
Waikato coach Tony Hanks, who have to travel Napier without key players Liam Messam (hamstring injury) and Stephen Donald (strained rib cartilage), saw some positives in hitting the road.
"For us there is a lot to be excited about in terms of it being the same as last year," he said, but added that they also know it's been a while since they have won in Napier.
"Yes, it's a venue where we haven't performed very well and so I definitely know there will be an edge to what we do this week.
"The boys are sick of leaving there without the points, so it's an extra little focus as well as it being a knockout match."
We bring you our predictions, with all the teams and match officials for the weekend:
Friday, October 10:
Canterbury v Tasman
AMI Stadium, Christchurch, 19.35 (07.35 GMT)
Played: 2 - Canterbury two wins
Biggest differential: Canterbury by 29 (44-15) earlier this year
Prediction: This won't be a fairytale, and the wise money is on a big win for Canterbury - by 15 points or more.
Teams:
Canterbury: 15 Scott Hamilton, 14 Paul Williams, 13 Casey Laulala, 12 Tim Bateman, 11 James Paterson, 10 Colin Slade, 9 Andy Ellis; 8 Kieran Read (captain), 7 George Whitelock, 6 Hayden Hopgood, 5 Isaac Ross, 4 Michael Paterson, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Wyatt Crockett.
Replacements: 16 Ti'i Paulo, 17 Owen Franks, 18 James Broadhurst, 19 Richie McCaw, 20 Tyson
Keats 21 Hamish Gard, 22 Adam Whitelock.
Tasman: 15 Robbie Malneek, 14 Blair Cook, 13 Kade Poki, 12 Andrew Goodman (captain), 11 Afeleke Pelenise, 10 Miah Nikora, 9 Kahn Fotuali'i; 8 Mark Bright, 7 Jonathan Poff, 6 Alex Ainley, 5 Brad Thorn, 4 Will Crutchley, 3 Tristan Moran, 2 Dan Perrin, 1 Ben May.
Replacements: 16 Quentin MacDonald, 17 Sakaria Taulafo, 18 Joe Wheeler, 19 Dan Hyatt, 20 Lualua Vailoaloa, 21 James Marshall, 22 Mike Pehi.
Referee: Jonathon White
Touch judges: Chris Pollock, Keith Brown
TMO: Kelvin Deaker
Saturday, October 11:
Wellington v Taranaki
Westpac Stadium, Wellington, 17.05 (05.05 GMT)
Played: 163 - Wellington win 113; Taranaki win 44
Biggest differential: Wellington by 45 (73–28), 2004
Prediction: The Wellington Lions will be back to their brilliant best and we expect them to run riot against a brave, but ultimately outclassed Taranaki outfit. The Lions to win by 15 points.
Teams:
Wellington: 15 Cory Jane, 14 Buxton Popoali'i, 13 Tamati Ellison, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Piri Weepu (captain), 9 Alby Matthewson; 8 Thomas Waldrom, 7 Scott Fuglistaller, 6 Chris Masoe, 5 Jeremy Thrush, 4 Ross Filipo, 3 Tim Fairbrother, 2 Dane Coles, 1 John Schwalger.
Replacements: 16 Ged Robinson, 17 Jacob Ellison, 18 Api Naikatini, 19 Rodney So'oialo, 20 Daniel Kirkpatrick, 21 Michael Hobbs, 22 Tane Tu'ipulotu.
Taranaki: 15 Jack Cameron, 14 Paul Perez, 13 Nathan Hohaia, 12 Jayden Hayward, 11 Shayne Austin, 10 Willie Ripia, 9 Brett Goodin; 8 Taiasina Tuifua, 7 Scott Waldrom, 6 Chris Walker, 5 Craig Clarke, 4 Jason Eaton, 3 Shane Cleaver, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Penn (captain).
Replacements: 16 Laurence Corlett, 17
Hamish Mitchell, 18 Leon Power, 19 Nemia Soqeta, 20 Brendan Haami, 21 Isaia Tuifua, 22 Corey Niwa.
Referee: Bryce Lawrence
Touch judges: Kelvin Deaker, Josh Noonan
TMO: Keith Brown
Bay Of Plenty v Southland
Bay Park Stadium, Mt Maunganui, 19.35 (07.35 GMT)
Played: 29 - Bay of Plenty win 18; Southland win 10
Biggest differential: Bay of Plenty by 31 (37–6), 1971
Prediction: This is an intriguing game and you have to give Southland at least an outside chance. However, we feel it will be a weekend of home wins at the BoP Steamers will sneak the win - by 10 points or less.
Teams:
Bay Of Plenty: 15 Zar Lawrence, 14 Lance MacDonald, 13 Cory Aporo, 12 Nigel Hunt, 11 Jason Hona, 10 Mike Delany, 9 Ruki Tipuna, 8 Colin Bourke, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Solomon King, 5 Culum Retallick, 4 John Moore, 3
John McGougan, 2 John Pareanga, 1 Joe Savage.
Replacements: 16 Dean Elmiger, 17 Matt Wallace, 18 Josh Katene, 19 Aiden Kuka, 20 Luke Braid, 21 Josh Hall, 22 Toby Arnold.
Southland: 15 Robbie Robinson, 14 Kendrick Lynn, 13 Matt Saunders, 12 Jason Kawau, 11 Pehi Te Whare, 10 Blair Stewart, 9 Jimmy Cowan, 8 David Hall, 7 Tim Boys, 6 Dion Bates, 5 Hoani Macdonald, 4 Josh Bekhuis, 3 Chris King, 2 Jason Rutledge, 1 Jamie Mackintosh.
Replacements: 16 Matt Holloway, 17 Fai Mika, 18 Daniel Ramsay, 19 John Hardie/Joe Tuineau, 20 Scott Cowan, 21 Mark Wells, 22 Willie Rickards.
Referee: Steve Walsh
Touch judges: Garratt Williamson, Matthew Stanish
TMO: Ben Skeen
Sunday, October 12:
Hawke's Bay v Waikato
McLean Park, Napier, 14.35 (02.35 GMT)
Played: 44 - Hawke's Bay win 19; Waikato win
24
Biggest differential: Waikato by 86 (86–0), 1999
Prediction: It is another game where the visitors have a real shout, but we've nailed our home flag to the mast and we must stick with a weekend of home wins. At least Hawke's Bay have a sound track record for us to go on. Hawke's Bay by 10 to 15 points.
Teams:
Hawke's Bay: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Jason Kupa, 13 Jason Shoemark, 12 Sam Giddens, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Matt Berquist, 9 Danny Lee (captain), 8 George Naoupu, 7 Karl Lowe, 6 Michael Johnson, 5 Bryn Evans, 4 Johan Snyman, 3 Anthony Perenise, 2 Hikawera Elliott, 1 Faka'anaua Taumalolo.
Replacements: 16 Ash Dixon, 17 Josh Keys, 18 Matt Egan, 19 Pama Petia, 20 Chris Eaton, 21 Daniel Waenga, 22 Aayden Clarke.
Waikato: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Sosene Anesi, 13 Richard Kahui, 12 Jackson Willison, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Callum Bruce, 9 David Bason, 8 Sione
Lauaki, 7 Tom Harding, 6 Faifili Levave, 5 Romana Graham, 4 Toby Lynn (captain), 3 Aled de Malmanche, 2 Ole Avei, 1 Hikairo Forbes.
Replacements: 16 Vern Kamo, 17 Toby Smith, 18 Kent Fife, 19 Matt Blain, 20 Malcolm Barnes, 21 Dwayne Sweeney, 22 Tim Mikkelson.
Referee: Vinny Munro
Touch judges: Chris Pollock, Brent Murray
TMO: Josh Noonan
HEARTLAND CHAMPIONSHIP:
Week Eight
Saturday, October 11:
(All games kick off at 14.30 - 02.30 GMT)
Wanganui v North Otago, Wanganui
Mid Canterbury v Buller, Ashburton
King Country v West Coast, Te Aroha
Horowhenua Kapiti v Poverty Bay, Levin
South Canterbury v Thames Valley, Timaru
Wairarapa Bush v East Coast, Masterton
