Get Newsletter

S18 PREVIEW: ROUND 11, PART ONE

Friday could mark a significant stage in the tournament, with three teams poised to rise to the top of their respective conference – in one case even to the top of the global standings.

ADVERTISEMENT

The high-flying Crusaders, who are on a seven-match winning streak, host the Reds – a team that has managed two wins in their last four games, but are still failing to convince.

The Crusaders will do the courteous thing and talk the Reds up, but they are well aware that a bonus-point win – with a margin of 21 points or more – will see them overtake the table-topping Chiefs.

That lead may be short-lived, but given that the Chiefs will face a desperate Highlanders outfit on Saturday, the Crusaders will have all the motivation they need to go for a big win.

In the other Friday game, when the Brumbies host the Bulls in Canberra, both teams have a chance to rise to the top of their respective conferences.

The Brumbies are just two points behind the Rebels, who have a bye, in the Australian conference.

The Bulls are just one point behind the Stormers, who also have a bye, in the Africa One conference.

ADVERTISEMENT

It is a simple equation for both – win and become the new conference leaders.

We look at the Friday, May 6, matches below!

S18 PREVIEW: ROUND 11, PART ONE

There is no denying that, alongside the Chiefs, the Crusaders are the form franchise in the competition.

ADVERTISEMENT

After a loss in Round One, the men from Christchurch have slipped into overdrive – scoring 34 tries and conceding just 15 in sevens matches.

That is an average of five tries per match, with an average match score of 34-19.

It is the kind of form you would expect of a team with seven previous titles and a history of putting teams away.

Crusaders coach Todd Blackadder was under no illusion as to the importance of the match.

"We are heading into the second half of the competition now so each game has an increased importance from here on in," Blackadder said.

"We want to make the most of the home ground advantage each time we are home."

However, he remained tactful when asked about the opposition.

 

"The Reds are a traditional rival of ours, who always lift their game when they play us and we expect nothing less on Friday," Blackadder said.

"There is no doubt that the Reds will be disappointed with their run in the competition so far, but this is when teams are often at their most dangerous so we are taking nothing for granted this week."

At least the Reds were more forthright in their assessment of the "red-hot" Crusaders.

"We all know how good the Crusaders are if you let them play to their strengths, so we have to challenge them with our effort for 80 minutes and by being accurate in all areas," Reds co-coach Matt O'Connor said.

"No one has mentioned what happened last year in Christchurch [a 58-17 win by the Crusaders], because it's how we front up on Friday that matters."

The breakdown battle is looming as a key factor, with Liam Gill primed to influence the tackle area.

"There's some key match-ups and that one's critical," Blackadder said of the breakdown.

"Gill is very good over the bal.

"If we think we can just continue the momentum we had you could easily come second or make it a bloody tough match."

Recent results:

2015: Crusaders won 58-17, Christchurch

2014: Crusaders won 57-29, Brisbane

2013: Crusaders won 38-9, Christchurch (preliminary play-off)

2012: Crusaders won 15-11, Christchurch

2011: Reds won 18-13, Brisbane (Final)

2011: Reds won 17-16, Brisbane

S18 PREVIEW: ROUND 11, PART ONE

Prediction:  The Crusaders have won their last eight home matches against the Reds, the last time the Queensland side travelled to Christchurch and won was in 1999. The Crusaders have won their last seven matches in a row following an opening round loss; the last time they won more consecutive games was in 2008 (eight wins). A Round 10 win against the Cheetahs means that the Reds are on the hunt for consecutive Super Rugby victories for the first time since Round 17, 2014. The Crusaders have missed an average of only 14.1 tackles per game so far this season, the equal fewest of any team in the competition and more than six fewer per game than the Reds. The Crusaders have scored 10 tries in the opening quarter of games so far this season, the most of any team in the competition and double the Reds' tally (five). It is not who will win, but rather by how much the Crusaders will win. We think it will be at least 20 points.

Teams:

Crusaders: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Johnny McNicholl, 13 Kieron Fonotia, 12 David Havili, 11 Jone Macilai, 10 Richie Mo'unga, 9 Mitchell Drummond, 8 Kieran Read (captain), 7 Matt Todd, 6 Jordan Taufua, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Scott Barrett, 3 Mike Alaalatoa, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Wyatt Crockett.

Replacements: 16 Ben Funnell, 17 Joe Moody, 18 Owen Franks, 19 Luke Romano, 20 Tim Boys, 21 Andy Ellis, 22 Ryan Crotty, 23 Marty McKenzie.

Reds: 15 Karmichael Hunt, 14 Chris Feauai-Sautia, 13 Campbell Magnay, 12 Anthony Fainga'a, 11 Eto Nabuli, 10 Jake McIntyre, 9 Nick Frisby, 8 Curtis Browning, 7 Liam Gill, 6 Hendrik Tui, 5 Rob Simmons, 4 Ben Matwijow, 3 Greg Holmes, 2 Andrew Ready, 1 James Slipper (captain).

Replacements: 16 Saia Fainga'a, 17 Sef Fa'agase, 18 Sam Talakai, 19 Cadeyrn Neville, 20 Michael Gunn, 21 James Tuttle, 22 Sam Greene, 23 Junior Laloifi.

Referee: Brendon Pickerill

Assistant referees: Jamie Nutbrown, Kane McBride

TMO: Chris Wratt

S18 PREVIEW: ROUND 11, PART ONE

Two straight losses for the Brumbies make this Round 11 fixture against the Bulls even more important, as they look to overhaul the Rebels at the top of the Australian conference.

At least the Brumbies can look to history for inspiration.

Since the beginning of the Super Rugby competition in 1996 the Brumbies shave won 58 of their 92 matches against South African opposition – a 63 percent win rate.

It barely pips a win rate of 62.9 percent against Australian teams, but is significantly more positive than a 50 percent win rate against teams from New Zealand.

The Bulls, in turn, are riding high on the back of a five-game winning streak.

Undefeated in seven straight games the Bulls are on their longest streak without loss since they won nine consecutive games to propel themselves into the 2013 play-offs.

However, Bulls coach Nollis Marais struck a cautious note, pointing to his team's poor track record in Canberra as a reason why their current momentum will mean very little on Friday.

"It will always be difficult to beat the Brumbies in Canberra," Marais said, adding: "But we are looking forward to the challenge."

He described the Brumbies as a team with good set pieces and are "one of the most structured sides in the competition".

"The Brumbies are one of the powerhouse teams in Australia and will ask different questions to our attack and defence," Marais said of this week's opposition.

Bulls captain, Adriaan Strauss said – despite last week's 42-20 bonus-point win over the Western Force, the team cannot really afford to sit back.

"The Brumbies will be coming at us from the start," the veteran hooker said.

"Canberra can be a difficult place to play, but we have won there before.

"The players are gelling nicely as a team and I am looking forward to a good match where we will try to be competitive in all aspects of play.

"The Brumbies are going to test all aspects of our play, so we need to be ready to front up."

Recent results:

2015: Brumbies won 22-16, Canberra

2014: Bulls won 44-23, Pretoria

2013: Brumbies won 26-23, Pretoria (semifinal)

2013: Brumbies won 23-20, Canberra

2012: Bulls won 36-34, Pretoria

2010: Bulls won 50-32, Pretoria

S18 PREVIEW: ROUND 11, PART ONE

Prediction: The Brumbies have won three of their last four matches against the Bulls, though the last time they beat the Bulls by more than a converted try was in Round Five, 2003. A brace of matches against New Zealand opposition leaves the Brumbies with a streak of two losses going into this fixture, the last time they lost more than two matches in a row in Super Rugby was in Round 13, 2011. The Bulls have won their last three matches away from home in Super Rugby, a fourth straight away would make it their longest streak in the franchise's history. Christian Lealiifano has kicked 34 goals so far this season, and missed only seven more, the most of any Australia-based player in the competition. Francois Brummer has scored 67 points so far this season, the most of any player who is yet to cross for a try. The Bulls have a very good chance of getting the win, but the smart money will be on the home team – the Brumbies by five points or less.

Teams:

Brumbies: 15 Aidan Toua, 14 Nigel Ah Wong, 13 Tevita Kuridrani, 12 Robbie Coleman, 11 James Dargaville, 10 Christian Lealiifano (co-captain), 9 Tomás Cubelli, 8 Jarrad Butler, 7 David Pocock, 6 Scott Fardy, 5 Sam Carter, 4 Rory Arnold, 3 Ben Alexander, 2 Stephen Moore (co-captain), 1 Scott Sio.

Replacements: 16 Josh Mann-Rea, 17 Allan Alaalatoa, 18 Ruan Smith, 19 Tom Staniforth, 20 Blake Enever, 21 Jordan Smiler, 22 Joe Powell, 23 Lausii Taliauli.

Bulls: 15 Sarel Marais, 14 Travis Ismaiel, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Jan Serfontein, 11 Bjorn Basson, 10 Francois Brummer, 9 Piet van Zyl, 8 Hanro Liebenberg, 7 Arno Botha, 6 Pieter Labuschagne, 5 Rudolf Snyman, 4 Marvin Orie, 3 Marcel van der Merwe, 2 Adriaan Strauss (captain), 1 Trevor Nyakane.

Replacements: 16 Bandise Maku, 17 Lizo Gqoboka, 18 Werner Kruger, 19 Jannes Kirsten, 20 Roelof Smit, 21 Rudy Paige, 22 Tian Schoeman, 23 Dan Kriel.

Referee: Ben O'Keeffe

Assistant referees: Will Houston, Ed Martin

TMO: Peter Marshall

Compiled by Jan de Koning

@King365ed

@rugby365com

* Statistical information provided by Opta Sports

S18 PREVIEW: ROUND 11, PART ONE

Join free

Aotearoa Rugby Podcast | Episode 6

Sam Warburton | The Big Jim Show | Full Episode

Japan Rugby League One | Sungoliath v Eagles | Full Match Replay

Japan Rugby League One | Spears v Wild Knights | Full Match Replay

Boks Office | Episode 10 | Six Nations Final Round Review

Aotearoa Rugby Podcast | How can New Zealand rugby beat this Ireland team

Beyond 80 | Episode 5

Rugby Europe Men's Championship Final | Georgia v Portugal | Full Match Replay

Write A Comment