S18 PREVIEW: ROUND 14, PART ONE
It is the final round ahead of the June break, which means it is an important occasion for every team with play-off aspirations.
With a five-week break and just three rounds of league matches remaining when the competition resumes in July, no team want to lose momentum.
Even with a whole month to ponder the final run-in, there will be no margin for error when teams return.
And to start the weekend's drama we have a re-run of last year's Final, the Hurricanes hosting the defending champion Highlanders in Wellington.
And, as if that is not enough to whet your appetite, then savour the second match on Friday – the table-topping Chiefs against a desperate Waratahs team.
That is followed by the encounter between the Southern Kings and Jaguares. While it may be a basement battle, it is no less intriguing an encounter than any of the top flight fixtures.
We look at the Friday, May 27, matches!
On the surface it would appear that Hurricanes coach Chris Boyd was stating the obvious when he said the match would be a "big occasion".
However, he was probably understating the significance of the fixture, five the close proximity of the New Zealand teams in the play-off race.
The Chiefs (on 42 league points) and Crusaders (41) head the dash for home ground advantage in the knock-out stages, with the Highlanders (37) and Hurricanes (36) within striking distance.
However, defeat will be near catastrophic, given that only three rounds remain upon the competition's resumption in July.
"All indications are there will be a big crowd [in Wellington] and that really pumps up the guys to perform in front of their home fans," Boyd said.
"It adds a real edge and nobody is under any illusion that this is an important match for both teams.
"We are really looking forward to what will no doubt be a tough challenge from a quality Highlanders unit."
While Friday's match is a replay of last year's Super Rugby Final (won 21-14 by the Highlanders), it is not the first time the two sides have met since – with the Highlanders winning another close encounter 17-16 in Dunedin in Round Two this year.
The Highlanders are coming off the two great victories, followed by last week's bye. With just this match before the June break it is going to be difficult to build any kind of momentum.
However, Highlanders Assistant coach Scott McLeod is more concerned with the scratchy starts in recent matches – especially against quality teams like the Chiefs and Crusaders.
"We got put under a hell of a lot of pressure against the Chiefs and the Crusaders, mainly at the start of those games," McLeod told the Otago Daily Times.
"Just the momentum they got and the line breaks they were able to do.
"So we have to shore up our defensive line a little bit more.
"To be able to put some early pressure on teams and not have to soak up as much.''
McLeod said the side was progressing and it would have been good to keep playing.
"We are learning about our game still. We are building slowly.
"It is nice to look after some niggles but you get the excitement of the game and keep it going.''
Recent results:
2016: Highlanders won 17-16, Dunedin
2015: Highlanders won 21-14, Wellington (Final)
2015: Hurricanes won 56-20, Wellington
2015: Hurricanes won 20-13, Dunedin
2014: Highlanders won 18-16, Wellington
2014: Highlanders won 35-31, Dunedin
Prediction: The Highlanders have won five of their last seven games against the Hurricanes, including victory in the 2015 Super Rugby Final. Only one of the last 16 games between these teams has been decided by more than the value of a converted try, with each team accruing eight wins in that span. The Hurricanes have won 18 of their last 22 games at home, though three of the four losses in that period came against New Zealand opposition. The Hurricanes have not trailed at the half-time break since Round Two this season, the last time they faced the Highlanders. Since then they've led at half time on eight occasions and been level once. Of the 12 players so far this season to attempt more than 40 shots at goal, Lima Sopoaga is the second most accurate at 75 percent (Lealiifano – 76 percent). The Highlanders have shown this season that they can win crunch matches and they are likely to edge this one – but not by much more than five points.
Teams:
Hurricanes: 15 James Marshall, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Matt Proctor, 12 Vince Aso, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Beauden Barrett, 9 TJ Perenara, 8 Victor Vito, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Brad Shields, 5 Michael Fatialofa, 4 Blade Thomson, 3 Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, 2 Dane Coles (captain), 1 Reggie Goodes.
Replacements: 16 Motu Matu'u, 17 Chris Eves, 18 Loni Uhila, 19 Mark Vaea Fifita, 20 Callum Gibbins, 21 Jamison Gibson-Park, 22 Ngani Laumape, 23 Jason Woodward.
Highlanders: 15 Ben Smith (captain), 14 Waisake Naholo, 13 Matt Faddes, 12 Malakai Fekitoa, 11 Patrick Osborne, 10 Lima Sopoaga, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Luke Whitelock, 7 Dan Pryor, 6 Elliot Dixon, 5 Tom Franklin, 4 Alex Ainley, 3 Josh Hohneck, 2 Ash Dixon, 1 Daniel Lienert-Brown.
Replacements: 16 Greg Pleasants-Tate, 17 Aki Seiuli, 18 Siosiua Halanukonuka, 19 Mark Reddish, 20 Liam Squire, 21 Fumiaki Tanaka, 22 Marty Banks, 23 Teihorangi Walden.
Referee: Mike Fraser (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Brendon Pickerill (New Zealand), Jamie Nutbrown (New Zealand)
TMO: Aaron Peterson (New Zealand)
The Waratahs are desperate to avoid re-run of last week's hammering at the hands of the Crusaders – with the 29-10 margin somewhat flattering to the Waratahs.
And facing another powerful New Zealand side on Friday in the table-topping Chiefs, the Sydney-based outfit had to do a lot of introspection.
Waratahs assistant coach Cam Blades spoke of "lessons learnt".
He said it is more important to focus on their own game, rather than to counter the opposition.
"We got caught last week being a little too focused on what they [the Crusaders] can do and what they bring to the table, rather than our strengths and what we bring to the table," Blades said.
"This week our focus is on our strengths, and making our strengths as good as they can be.
"We must make sure that the Waratahs' game is better than the Chiefs' fame."
He said that are not carrying any emotional baggage from last week's loss into this game.
"By lunch time on a Monday we had finished our review and moved on and buried that performance, and taken the lessons from it going forward. T
"he rest of it we shed so we're not carrying it forward with us.
"We really focus on what needs to be done so our next performance is as good as it can be. If that happens then we generally get the results we want."
He said the June break is not doing their team any favours either.
"Players just want to play," Blades said, adding: "They'd rather play every week than spend weeks just training without a game.
"Some players will move into the Wallabies squad and some of our other guys that have played high minutes will rest up a little bit.
"The guys who haven't been playing much will play a little bit of club rugby."
Chiefs coach Dave Rennie, in contrast, was concerned that complacency might be an issue for his table-topping outfit.
The Wednesday training session didn't exactly fill Rennie with confidence.
"We're certainly clear on what we've got to do and we actually didn't see too much evidence of it on the field [at training on Wednesday]," Rennie told stuff.co.nz.
"It was a bit of a frustrating training session.
"In the end, you've got to hang onto the ball and build pressure. If you don't and you turn it over against sides like the Waratahs, you get hurt, so it's got to be key for us."
Recent results:
2014: Waratahs won 33-17, New Plymouth
2013: Waratahs won 25-20, Sydney
2012: Chiefs won 30-13, Hamilton
2011: Waratahs won 23-16, Sydney
2010: Waratahs won 46-19, Hamilton
2009: Waratahs won 11-7, Sydney
Prediction: The Waratahs have won five of their last six games against the Chiefs, though this will be their first encounter since Round 16, 2014. The Chiefs have won only twice against the Waratahs in Sydney in Super Rugby in nine attempts, losing seven away Tahs in total. The Chiefs have won all five of their games away from home so far this season; they are the only team this campaign yet to lose a game on the road. The Chiefs have scored 52 tries this season, the most of any team and they are the only side to have scored half a century of tries going into Round 14. Israel Folau has gained an average of 97.4 metres per game in his last eight encounters with teams from New Zealand but, despite scoring five tries in his last eight games overall, he hasn't scored against a New Zealand team since Round 10, 2015. The question is just how desperate are the Waratahs? If it depends on pure skill, the Chiefs should win easily. We think they will edge ahead in the final quarter and win by 10 to 15 points.
Teams:
Waratahs: 15 Andrew Kellaway, 14 Matt Carraro, 13 Israel Folau, 12 Rob Horne, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Bernard Foley, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper (captain), 6 Dean Mumm, 5 Will Skelton, 4 Dave Dennis, 3 Tom Robertson, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Paddy Ryan.
Replacements: 16 Hugh Roach, 17 Jeremy Tilse, 18 Angus Ta'avao, 19 Sam Lousi, 20 Jack Dempsey, 21 Matt Lucas, 22 David Horwitz, 23 Reece Robinson.
Chiefs: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Toni Pulu, 13 Seta Tamanivalu, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 11 James Lowe, 10 Aaron Cruden (co-captain), 9 Brad Weber, 8 Tom Sanders, 7 Sam Cane (co-captain), 6 Taleni Seu, 5 Brodie Retallick, 4 Dominic Bird, 3 Hiroshi Yamashita, 2 Nathan Harris, 1 Mitchell Graham.
Replacements: 6 Hika Elliot, 17 Kane Hames, 18 Siegfried Fisi'ihoi, 19 Michael Allardice, 20 Lachlan Boshier, 21 Kayne Hammington, 22 Andrew Horrell, 23 Sam Vaka.
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Jaco van Heerden (South Africa), Ed Martin (Australia)
TMO: Peter Marshall
The Southern Kings have come in for some scathing criticism – mostly because of the comical bungling in the boardroom, but lately more so for their amateurish on-field performances.
Some of the most harsh critics described them as circus clowns and a joke.
It will take a special effort to silence those critics, against a team that put 70 points past them less than a month ago.
That game was in Buenos Aires. This time it is in Port Elizabeth.
The Jaguares are also coming off a horror run – just one win in their last 10 matches, the victory that 73-27 hammering of the Kings.
Lock Guido Petti described last week's 24-52 loss to the Lions as a "bucket of cold water".
And they are determined to prove they are not bottom feeders.
"We need to focus on improving certain aspects of our game and finish the [South African] tour in the best way possible," Petti said.
"We need to keep our belief and trust in what we do on the pitch. We must back our game plan, regardless of the opposition."
The Jaguares are not expecting the Kings to be the same soft touch they were in Buenos Aires on April 30.
" his time they are at home and the result of the previous game against us will serve as motivation for them," the second row forward said.
He expects them to be "very physical".
The bulk of the Jaguares squad will go straight from PE into training with the Argentina national team for the June internationals, so they feel it is important to take "some confidence" out of this game.
Previous result:
2016: Jaguares won 73-27, Buenos Aires
Prediction: The last time these teams met the Jaguares scored 73 points against the South African side, the equal ninth most by a team in Super Rugby history. All three of the Kings' home wins in Super Rugby have come against teams from outside of South Africa, the last of which came in Round Six this season against the Sunwolves. The Jaguares have lost their last six away games since an opening round victory away to the Cheetahs, conceding an average of 34 points per game in those six games. CJ Velleman has won 1.9 turnovers per game on average this campaign, only David Pocock (2.3) has won more amongst players who have made more than one appearance this season. The Jaguares have beaten an average of 25.2 defenders per game so far this season, only the Lions (27.5) have beaten more. It won't be the same massive margin, but the Jaguares will win again – perhaps by 20 to 25 points.
Teams:
Southern Kings: 15 Jurgen Visser, 14 Lukhanyo Am, 13 Stefan Watermeyer, 12 Shane Gates, 11 Wandile Mjekevu, 10 Louis Fouche, 9 Ntando Kebe, 8 Aidon Davis, 7 Thembelani Bholi, 6 Stefan Willemse, 5 John-Charles Astle, 4 Steven Sykes (captain), 3 Jacobie Adriaanse, 2 Edgar Marutlulle, 1 Schalk Ferreira.
Replacements: 16 Martin Bezuidenhout, 17 Justin Ackerman, 18 Tom Botha, 19 Schalk Oelofse, 20 Jacques Engelbrecht, 21 Kevin Luiters, 22 Dewald Human, 23 Phillipus du Plessis.
Jaguares: 15 Joaquín Tuculet, 14 Matías Orlando, 13 Segundo Tuculet, 12 Juan Martín Hernández, 11 Emiliano Boffelli , 10 Nicolás Sánchez, 9 Martín Landajo, 8 Facundo Isa, 7 Juan Manuel Leguizamón, 6 Tomás Lezana, 5 Tomás Lavanini, 4 Guido Petti, 3 Ramiro Herrera, 2 Agustín Creevy (captain), 1 Santiago García Botta.
Replacements: 16 Julián Montoya, 17 Facundo Gigena, 18 Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro, 19 Matías Alemanno, 20 Javier Ortega Desio, 21 Felipe Ezcurra, 22 Santiago González Iglesias, 23 Ramiro Moyano.
Referee: Nick Briant
Assistant referees: Quinton Immelman, Ben Crouse
TMO: Marius Jonker
Compiled by Jan de Koning
@King365ed
@rugby365com
* Statistical information provided by Opta Sports
