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S14 Preview: Round Five, Part Two

Fri, 12 Mar 2010 00:05

On the charge: Young Bulls lock Flip van der Merwe - Pic: Rian Botes

The burning question remains: 'Who will be the first team to lower the defending champion Bulls' colours?'

They are busy building up an impressive Super Rugby track record - aiming for their 10th consecutive win, stretching back almost a year. Their last defeat was a disputable 31-32 loss to the Brumbies on April 17 last year.

And add a year to that if you look for their last defeat at home - an astonishing 13-match victory run at Loftus Versfeld.

That said, they have some way to go to the Super records held by the seven-time champion Crusaders - who have the longest winning streak of 16 matches, the longest unbeaten run of 17 matches and a home winning streak of 26 matches.

This week the Super Rugby spotlight will be on the hapless Highlanders, who have the unenviable task of entering fortress Loftus.

Other games we look at in this part of our Super 14 preview are the Stormers' encounter with the Hurricanes and the all-Australian derby between the Reds and Western Force on Sunday.

Jan de Koning takes a look at the second half of the Super 14, Round Five action!

Saturday, March 13:

Bulls v Highlanders
(Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria - Kick-off: 17.05, 15.05 GMT)

Such has the Bulls' dominance been in the first four weeks of the competition that even with a bye last week they are still top of the table - the only unbeaten team.

They are facing a Highlanders team beset by internal strive and deprived of their three most influential players - injured captain Jimmy Cowan, as well as flyhalf Michael Hobbs and All Black loose forward Adam Thomson - the latter two axed after they failed to comply with the team curfew following the Stormers game last week.

Faced with a team seemingly in disarray and the visitors coming off a 33-point shut-out at the hands of the Stormers last week one would suspect an easy win for the Bulls.

But such has been the professionalism of the men from Pretoria that they are unlikely to fall into a complacency trap.

There are also other incentives, apart from another five vital league points on offer, with a few personal milestones to add to the team's drive for success.

Flyhalf Morné Steyn needs to score 23 points to equal former Sharks fullback Gavin Lawless' record of scoring 100 points in four Super Rugby games. Steyn has scored 77 points in three games. He has scored three tries, kicked 10 penalties and converted 16 tries for the defending champions.

The defending Super 14 champions are determined to stretch their 13-match winning streak at Loftus Versfeld.

As the only unbeaten side in this season's Super 14, the Bulls have scored 149 points at an average of 49.7 per game. Their 17 tries also puts them just short of six tries a game. In both instances they have an edge over the second-placed Chiefs - who have 146 points and 17 tries after four games.

Veteran lock and Bulls captain Victor Matfield will his 99th game of Super Rugby (91 for the Bulls and eight for the Cats), but leads the Bulls for the 50th time. Raising the half century as a skipper will leave the new King of Loftus just two matches behind the South African record for captaincy in Super Rugby, which is held by Corne Krige, who led the Stormers on 52 occasions.

There's another piece of info the statistically minded will be able to lap up. The Bulls have won coming off a bye in all four years of the Super 14.

However, the most intimidating bit of statistical data would be the Bulls' second-half surges this season. They have ran in 30 unanswered second half points to come from behind and beat the Brumbies, while 31 points also saw them overtake the Waratahs.

Highlanders coach Glenn Moore will have his work cut out for him to motivate a team that seems to lack any real dept and will obviously not feature any of their superstars.

The Highlanders have also won only two of their last 10 matches away from home and failed to trouble the scorers at Newlands last week.

Despite all this, the Bulls captain, Matfield, was adamant that the Highlanders will not be taken lightly.

"They did play badly against the Stormers," Matfield said of the visitors' 0-33 results in Cape Town.

"They have a strong set phase and with Tom Donnelly in the line-outs, can be very difficult opponents.

"They created enough chances against the Stormers and we realize that our A-game will be needed to beat them."

Super 14 results:
2009: Highlanders won 36-12, Palmerston North
2008: Bulls won 47-17, Pretoria
2007: Bulls won 22-13, Dunedin
2006: Bulls won 23-16, Pretoria

rugby365.com Prediction: This could get ugly. It is not being dismissive of the Highlanders as a team, but a realistic look at what is happening to the Dunedin-based franchise. The two teams could not be further apart in terms of their build-up to the game. The Bulls a settled and very experienced team on a white-hot winning streak. The Highlanders in tatters through off-field dramas and lack the two most important rugby ingredients that make for success - experience in key areas and a settled unit. Of course complacency could be a factor. However, we feel the Bulls should record another five-pointer. The Bulls by 20 points.

Teams:

Bulls: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Gerhard van den Heever, 13 Stephan Dippenaar, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 Derick Kuün, 5 Victor Matfield (captain), 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Gary Botha, 1 Gurthrö Steenkamp.
Replacements: 16 Bandise Maku, 17 Rossouw de Klerk, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Deon Stegmann, 20 Jacques-Louis Potgieter, 21 Jaco van der Westhuyzen, 22 Pedrie Wannenburg.

Highlanders: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Ben Smith, 13 Kenny Lynn, 12 Jason Shoemark, 11 Fetu'u Vainikolo, 10 Mat Berquist, 9 Sean Romans, 8 Steven Setephano, 7 Alando Soakai, 6 Tim Boys, 5 Tom Donnelly, 4 Josh Bekhuis, 3 Chris King, 2 Jason Macdonald, 1 Jamie Mackintosh (captain).
Replacements: 16 Jason Rutledge, 17 Bronson Murray, 18 Hayden Triggs, 19 John Hardie, 20 Scott Cowan, 21 Robbie Robinson, 22 James Paterson.

Referee: Jonathan Kaplan (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Pro Legoete (South Africa), Christie du Preez (South Africa)
TMO: Johann Meuwesen (South Africa)

Stormers v Hurricanes
(Newlands, Cape Town - 19.10, 17.10 GMT)

The Hurricanes and the Stormers are coming off contrasting weeks - the home team having put their campaign back on track with that 33-0 shut-out of the Highlanders last week and the Hurricanes going off the rails in recording a 12-28 loss to the Cheetahs.

The results last week - both in Bloemfontein and Cape Town - highlighted two important facts. The Hurricanes tend to lose their structure when they are physically dominated, especially in the contact situations, while the Stormers remain the best defensive unit in the competition.

Despite their Week Three loss to the Brumbies the Stormers have conceded just 38 points and two tries. Even the Waratahs had to be contend with just two penalty goals.

But don't expect to get the Stormers coaching staff to admit that their team is favoured to win. As cliched and overused as they are, Stormers mentor Allister Coetzee spoke of the Hurricanes being a "tough team" and dangerous opponents.

Coetzee told the media this week that he expects a fierce onslaught in the scrums.

"We're playing against a very strong side," the Stormers mentor said.

"It could be one of the toughest challenges for us in the competition.

"This is a solid scrummaging pack we're up against. They've got an All Black in [Neemia] Tialata and [Andrew] Hore and [other] All Blacks in the pack. It will be a tough challenge and they will target our scrums, but I'm very confident in the way we've been scrumming."

Stormers forwards coach Matt Proudfoot also played down the favourites tag now foisted upon his team believes the men from Cape Town will have to "dig deep" to contain the Hurricanes.

"They're very powerful and they look to dominate the contact points, with or without the ball," Proudfoot said.

"The Hurricanes commit numbers at the breakdown, they hit you hard and try and force you out of your structures."

Coetzee also emphasised the need to find the right balance between attack and defence.

"I never want to be conservative and I never want to be on the other side with an all-out attack approach," he said, adding: "I think there's a balance that one's got to look at and get right."

The Hurricanes will be looking to the return of midfield backs Conrad Smith and Tamati Ellison to add some composure after they crashed to the Cheetahs in Bloemfontein last week.

They'll need it too, as they go up against an impressive Stormers outfit that is building up playoff-like momentum.

All Black Ma'a Nonu was yellow-carded for the second straight week, while returning second row Jeremy Thrush also spent time on the sidelines in Bloemfontein as the Cheetahs made the Hurricanes pay dearly for their sins.

Despite scoring two tries to one, the Hurricanes were well beaten, conceding seven penalty goals – many of them from long distances – during their first loss of the year.

After getting away with last week's tip-tackle - he was yellow carded but not cited - the spotlight will be firmly on Nonu. Another yellow and he will face an automatic disciplinary hearing.

Super 14 results:
2009: Hurricanes won 34-11, Wellington
2008: Stormers won 20-12, Cape Town
2007: Stormers won 30-17, Palmerston North
2006: Hurricanes 23-19, Cape Town

rugby365.com Prediction: This one will be much closer than most expect. The Hurricanes is the one team that has the fire power to unsettle the Stormers - both up front and in the backline. While the Stormers' much-improved tight five have now dispelled any doubts about them, you never bet against a New Zealand team to get physical and make use of their braw to overpower a South African rival. We feel the Stormers will edge this, but not by much. The Stormers by less than 10 points.

Teams:

Stormers: 15 Joe Pietersen, 14 Sireli Naqelevuki, 13 Jaque Fourie, 12 Juan de Jongh, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Dewaldt Duvenage, 8 Duane Vermeulen, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Schalk Burger (captain), 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Anton van Zyl, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Tiaan Liebenberg, 1 Wicus Blaauw.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 JC Kritzinger, 18 De Kock Steenkamp, 19 Pieter Louw, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Lionel Cronjé, 22 Gio Aplon.

Hurricanes: 15 Cory Jane, 14 Tamati Ellison, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 David Smith, 10 Willie Ripia, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Rodney So'oialo, 7 Scott Waldrom, 6 Victor Vito, 5 Michael Paterson, 4 Bryn Evans, 3 Neemia Tialata, 2 Andrew Hore (captain), 1 Jacob Ellison.
Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 John Schwalger, 18 Jeremy Thrush, 19 Karl Lowe, 20 Tyson Keats, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Alapati Leiua.

Referee: Steve Walsh (Australia)
Assistant referees: Stuart Berry (South Africa), Marc van Zyl (South Africa)
TMO: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)

Sunday, March 14:

Reds v Western Force
(Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane - 16.10, 06.10 GMT)

Derby matches have a strange way of playing havoc with predictions and pre-match analysis.

And if you want to know just how difficult it could be, thing about this: The winless Western Force have won three of their four previous matches coming off the break.

Logic tells you that the vastly improved Reds' form this year makes them favourites.

But then the Reds have also showed a certain vulnerability. They beat the Crusaders in Week Two, only to stumble to the Blues in Brisbane a week later and then bounced back to upstage the Chiefs in Hamilton last week.

Add in their First Round stumble against the Waratahs and they have a perfect lose-one-win-one record. It also means they are due for a shock loss this week.

However, should the Reds win it will be their first back-to-back victories in Super Rugby since they beat the Cats and the Bulls at home during the first Super 14 season in 2006.

But grabbing a victory won't be easy, as the Force are coming off a bye and are desperate for their first win of the season.

Reds playmaker Quade Cooper said he was expecting the Perth-based franchise to throw everything at the Reds as they are a "good, quality side".

"We've had a few challenges already this season," Cooper said.

"Two in a row is something we had as a pre-season goal, so we're looking forward to doing that, if we can nail down the hard work at training this week.

"It's going to be a tough game against the Force, they're a good side. Playing any Australian side, it's always a difficult match, and an Australian derby is always one you look out for."
 
Relations between the franchises were strained by the Force's aggressive recruitment of Reds players prior to their maiden season.

This has been reflected in the games between the two, which have always been hotly contested, and generally been decisively won and lost. The Reds won 29-18 at home in 2006 and 29-12 two years later, but they've twice been towelled up on their visits to the Force.

Sunday is the 'decider', as far as the Super 14 era is concerned at least. Next year it becomes the Super XV and there will be 'bragging rights' on offer to the victors.

Super 14 results:
2009: Force won 39-7, Perth
2008: Reds won 29-12, Brisbane
2007: Force won 38-3, Perth
2006: Reds won 29-18, Brisbane

rugby365.com Prediction: This should be easy to prediction. The Reds have some form coming into the game, the Force don't. However, this is a derby game and those are notorious for producing the unexpected. We feel the home trend will continue, with a solid Reds win. The Reds by 10 to 15 points.

Teams:

The Reds:  15 Peter Hynes, 14 Luke Morahan, 13 Digby Ioane, 12 Anthony Faingaa, 11 Brando Va’aulu, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Will Genia (captain), 8 Leroy Houston, 7 Daniel Braid, 6 Scott Higginbotham, 5 Van Humphries, 4 Rob Simmons, 3 Laurie Weeks, 2 Saia Faingaa, 1 Ben Daley.
Replacements: 16 Sean Hardman, 17 Greg Holmes, 18 Adam Byrnes, 19 Jake Schatz, 20 Ben Lucas, 21 Morgan Turinui, 22 Will Chambers.

The Western Force: 15 Dane Haylett-Petty, 14 Scott Staniforth, 13 Ryan Cross, 12 James O’Connor, 11 Nick Cummins, 10 David Hill, 9 Brett Sheehan, 8 Richard Stanford, 7 Matt Hodgson, 6 Ben McCalman, 5 Nathan Sharpe (captain), 4 Sam Wykes, 3 Tim Fairbrother, 2 Ryan Tyrrell, 1 Nic Henderson.
Replacements: 16 Pek Cowan, 17 Matt Dunning, 18 Tom Hockings, 19 Jono Jenkins, 20 Chris O’Young, 21 Sam Harris, 22 Mitch Inman.

Referee: Ian Smith (Australia)
Assistant referees: Paul Marks (Australia), Stuart Dickinson (Australia)
TMO: Steve Leszczynski (Australia)

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