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S14 Preview: Round Six, Part One

Wed, 17 Mar 2010 22:36

Hard work: Brumbies scrumhalf Josh Valentine - Pic: Doug Fitz-Gerald

After five rounds of the Super 14, the serious contenders for semi-final places are being separated from the also-rans, with the Bulls the only unbeaten team and the Stormers, Crusaders and Brumbies having lost only one game each.

With the help of their four bonus points, the Chiefs are right up there too.

But there is still a long way to go and with the exception of the bottom four teams, anything is still possible in terms of solidifying semi-final contention, or indeed falling by the wayside.

In Round Six this weekend we have two domestic derbies, with the Cheetahs travelling from Bloemfontein to Cape Town to play the Stormers and the Waratahs flying from Sydney to Perth to take on the Western Force. The Brumbies host the Blues in Auckland, the Bulls host the Hurricanes in Pretoria, the Lions are in Christchurch to play the Crusaders, and the Sharks travel to South Island to play the Highlanders.

This preview discusses the first three games of the weekend - the games in Auckland, Pretoria and Christchurch.

Friday, March 19:

Blues v Brumbies
(Eden Park, Auckland - 19.35, 06.35 GMT)

This is the Brumbies first game in New Zealand this year but it will not hold the fears which visits to Eden Park did at times in the past.

It is the Blues' first game at Eden Park this season and head coach Pat Lam says that despite it being a construction site, the players are eager to put in a good performance in front of their home crowd.

"Eden Park is our home and the boys are really excited about getting out there," he said, adding: "It's always been every young player's dream, particularly around this area, to play on Eden Park and there are some boys here that are going out onto the Park for the first time as Blues players so there's a real buzz and excitement about it."

In fact though, Auckland no longer provides the home fortress it once did for the Blues. It took 23 matches across three years from the start of the Super 12 in 1996 before the three-time champion Blues finally lost a match at home, but for second-season coach Pat Lam, this year’s opening round loss to the Hurricanes in their only home fixture this year - albeit in Albany - was the Blues fifth loss in Auckland in eight games under his guidance.

They have won only seven of 14 matches at home in the three campaigns since the most recent of their five semi-final appearances in 2007.

The Brumbies have won four out of five games this year and the Blues two out of four.

The Blues have played some good rugby, with the win against the Reds in Brisbane their highlight, but have lacked the consistency to challenge for a spot nearer the top of the log. Their 86 points for and 100 conceded has been a disappointment.

The Brumbies have been up and down in performance, good at times - and tactically masterful in beating the Stormers at Newlands - but they will need to be more convincing in their play to challenge for the Super 14 title.

The Brumbies last match in Auckland in 2008 was a milestone, with the Canberra team recording their first win at Eden Park since 2001.

Head coach Andy Friend says he’s looking for his side to repeat the result and record their fifth win of the season.

"I’m very comfortable with where we are at the moment," he said. "If someone had offered me four wins from five at the beginning of the season with the South African leg completed, then I would have taken that.

"The challenge for us is that we continue to build throughout the season. At this stage, we’re creating opportunities to put sides away but we’re not finishing them off. The pleasing aspect is that our performances are improving each week, combinations are looking stronger and the team statistics show that we are getting closer to where we want to be with each match."

This could be a tight game, with two good packs of forwards, backs similarly penetrative, and accurate goal-kickers on either side.

The attacking prowess of players like Joe Rokocoko and Rudi Wolf (Blues) and Matt Giteau and Adam Ashley-Cooper (Brumbies) is well documented, but of the less heralded game-breakers, the most impressive have perhaps been Blues scrumhalf Alby Mathewson and centre Rene Ranger, and Brumbies Pat McCabe (wing) Christian Lealiifano (centre).

In as tough a contest as this game may be, any one of these players could produce a bit of magic to change the course of the game.

Blues skipper Keven Mealamu, a 71-Test cap All Black hooker, plays his 100th game for the franchise and his team-mates will be keener than ever to honour him by securing a victory at Eden Park.

The Brumbies have lost their 80-Test cap Wallaby veteran centre Stirling Mortlock to injury, and able a replacement as Tyrone Smith may be, Mortlock's acumen and experience will be sorely missed, especially if the game is as tight as expected.

Super 14 results:
2009: Brumbies won 37-15 (Canberra)
2008: Brumbies won 16-11 (Auckland)
2007: Blues won 17-15 (Canberra)
2006: Blues won 26-15 (Auckland)

rugby365.com Prediction: This is a tough one to predict, but with the Blues well rested coming off their bye week and intent on returning Eden Park to its former fortress status, the addition of Isaia Toeava to their ranks and the Brumbies loss of Stirling Mortlock, the home team may just squeeze in a narrow win - perhaps by 5 or 10 points. 

Teams:

Blues: 15 Isaia Toeava, 14 Joe Rokocoko, 13 Rene Ranger, 12 Benson Stanley, 11 Rudi Wulf, 10 Stephen Brett, 9 Alby Mathewson, 8 Viliami Ma'afu, 7 Serge Lilo, 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Anthony Boric, 4 Kurtis Haiu, 3 John Afoa, 2 Keven Mealamu (captain), 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Tom McCartney, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Filo Paulo, 19 Peter Saili, 20 Chris Smylie, 21 Dan Kirkpatrick, 22 Paul Williams.

Brumbies: 15 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 14 Pat McCabe, 13 Tyrone Smith, 12 Christian Lealiifano, 11 Francis Fainifo, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Josh Valentine, 8 Stephen Hoiles (captain), 7 George Smith, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Mark Chisholm, 4 Ben Hand, 3 Salesi Maafu, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Ben Alexander.
Replacements: 16 Huia Edmonds, 17 Jerry Yanuyanutawa, 18 Justin Harrison, 19 Mitchell Chapman, 20 Patrick Phibbs, 21 Matt Toomua, 22 Andrew Smith.

Referee: Mark Lawrence (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Garratt Williamson (New Zealand), Matthew Stanish (New Zealand)
TMO: Glenn Newman (New Zealand)

Bulls v Hurricanes
(Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria - 19.10, 17.10 GMT)

Can any team stop the rampant Bulls, who are unbeaten and have scored an average of 50 points per game?

Can the Hurricanes, unbeaten after three games but since then losing two in a row, arrest their slide and beat the Bulls at altitude at Loftus Versfeld?

The Bulls winning run at home is now 14 games and nearly two full years. The Hurricanes were the last team not to depart Loftus Versfeld as losers.

Since that defeat on April 12, 2008, the Bulls have scored points galore, piling on 536 at an average of just over 38 per game. They’ve conceded their share too, with visiting team’s averaging just over 23 points per game, but the key thing is that the Bulls keep winning the close ones.

After their defeat to the Stormers last weekend, Hurricanes coach Colin Cooper and captain Andrew Hore were adamant that they could overcome all obstacles, regain their best form and upstage the Bulls.

Hore said he believed that one of the good things about the Super 14 was that teams had to wait only six or seven days before getting "another chance to right the wrongs" and they would endeavour to do so against the Bulls on Friday.

"We've made the tour hard on ourselves with what we did in Bloemfontein and then the first 40 minutes down here," Hore said, adding that to be semi-final contenders it was important for his team to regroup this week and try to cause an upset against the Bulls in Pretoria.

On prospects for the week, Cooper commented: "We've just got to regroup and find out how good a character we've got."

He added this week: "The Bulls are on a high and they are unbeaten, so obviously the challenge is even bigger, but we are stepping up for the challenge. I've got a core group, and even though I've lost a couple of those guys to injuries, we still have a very good core group. I've got the depth [with which] I feel we can turn it around."

Cooper said he tought the Bulls attack "pretty special, so we just have to make sure we sustain our systems". He lamented the soft tries scored by the Stormers  against them and the wrong options taken by his team on attack, which cost them tries.

Against the Stormers, the Hurricanes strayed from their game-plan - based around keeping ball in hand and building phases - and crucial to their chances of victory this week will be adhering to their plan.

Cooper's winning record with the Hurricanes in South Africa was running at 10 out of 15 before losing to the Sharks last year, but after three successive losses, it is now at 10 out of 18. Can his team turn the trend around on Friday?

The Bulls have played five, won five this year and have scored 199 points but in doing so have conceded 139 - an average of 35 per game - more than any other team in the top 10 log positions other than the Chiefs. Could their leaking of points cost them dearly at some stage? Or will they continue to score so many points that it won't matter how many they concede?

Coach Frans Ludeke and captain Victor Matfield profess no serious concern, with Ludeke pointing out that his team is unbeaten at the top of the log and have collected a full-house five points in all their matches thus far, and Matfield - while acknowleging that his team have lost concentration at times, become a touch unstructured on occasion and have slipped a few first-time tackles - said his team would "go back and work on those aspects for the next game".

Matfield plays his 100th Super game for the Bulls since his 1999 debut, and with his 92 Tests caps (and counting), he has become an icon in South African rugby and a major factor as lock and captain in every game.

On the Hurricanes specifically, Ludeke commented that he expected it to be a very physical game, but determined as the visitors would be, it was more important to focus on the Bulls own game.
 
At their best the Hurricanes forwards can match any pack in the battle for possession and their backs are capable of cutting the best defence. They pride themselves on tight defence too. If they play at their optimum they can beat any team, but if they again fail to stick to their game-plan and leak soft tries, they will have a rough time of it against the Bulls.

The Bulls will win ball and score tries and Morné Steyn will kick the ball through the posts - that we know. What we do not know is for how long they will lose focus and how many points they will allow the opposition to score.
 
Super 14 results:
2009: Bulls won 19-14 (Wellington)
2008: Hurricanes won 50-22 (Pretoria)
2007: Hurricanes won 17-9 (Wellington)           
2006: Hurricanes won 26-23 (Pretoria)

rugby365.com Prediction: The dropping of scrumhalf Piri Weepu, in many matches in the past a Hurricanes hero, shows coach Colin Cooper means business because it shows his senior players that no-one is above getting the axe. Cooper's players will be hyped-up to perform, but the likely scenario is that the Hurricanes will score quite a few points but that the Bulls will score even more, perhaps continuing in the same vein as the Bulls average game score of 50-35. The Hurricanes should be a far more formidable outfit that which disappointed against the Cheetahs and Stormers, but this may not be sufficient to secure a win at the fortress that Loftus Versfeld has become. The Bulls should win by 10 or 15 points.

Teams:

Bulls: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Gerhard van den Heever, 13 Stephan Dippenaar, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Francois Hougaard, 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Dewald Potgieter, 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Victor Matfield (captain), 4 Danie Rossouw, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Gary Botha, 1 Gurthrö Steenkamp.
Replacements: 16 Bandise Maku, 17 Bees Roux/Rossouw de Klerk, 18 Flip van der Merwe, 19 Derick Kuün, 20 Jacques-Louis Potgieter, 21 Jaco van der Westhuyzen, 22 Pedrie Wannenburg.

Hurricanes: 15 Andre Taylor, 14 Tamati Ellison, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Alapati Leiua, 10 Willie Ripia, 9 Tyson Keats, 8 Rodney So'oialo, 7 Karl Lowe, 6 Victor Vito, 5 Michael Paterson, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Neemia Tialata, 2 Andrew Hore (captain), 1 John Schwalger.
Replacements: 16 Dane Coles, 17 Jacob Ellison, 18 Bryn Evans, 19 Nick Crosswell, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 David Smith.

Referee: Nathan Pearce (Australia)
Assistant referees: Steve Walsh (Australia), Stefan Breytenbach
TMO: Shaun Veldsman

Saturday, March 20:

Crusaders v Lions
(AMI Stadium, Christchurch - 17.30, 04.30 GMT)

The Lions fly from Sydney to Christchurch having conceded 29 tries and 228 points in their five games this year, with last week’s capitulation representing the fourth time in their last 15 matches that they have leaked eight tries or more. In their last seven visits to Christchurch, the Lions have only once held the Crusaders to fewer than 30 points - and that was a 0-23 loss in 1997.

They have lost 22 consecutive matches in New Zealand; in contrast, the Crusaders have not lost to a South African team in Christchurch since 1996.

The Lions predessors as the Johannesburg-based franchise, the Cats, twice conceded over 50 points in Christchurch and twice let in 40 or more.

Who better to sum up the Lions fortunes, and their dismal showing against the Waratahs last Friday, than their president Kevin de Klerk?

Speaking during the week, he admitted that "the wheels fell off" in Sydney. He acknowledged that that the team's form had taken a dramatic slump, despite coach Dick Muir's promise that there would be a steady improvement as the season progressed. He described the team as their own worst enemies, saying they "play into the opposition's hands". He lamented their inability to do the basics competently and their poor judgment, and said their attack was not as good as it had been in the earlier rounds.

Even their strongest supporters have begun wondering how they will ever succeed in winning games. Essentially only if their attack is at its best - and there have been more than glimpses of exciting attacking play from them this season - and if they make their tackles. The latter is the key factor.

Getting the basics right and cutting out silly options are crucial, but most important - along with sticking to some sort of pre-planned game structure - is actually making one-on-one tackles and restricting the opposition to tries that are earned by their own excellence and not by Lions incompetence.

The Crusaders have looked good in four of their five games, with excellent wins over the Blues and Chiefs in their last two games, and just the one slip-up against the Reds in Brisbane.

They are building up good momentum and will want to sustain their winning run with a comprehensive bonus-point win over the Lions - and there is no reason why they should not do so.

They are strong in every department, with no obvious weaknesses, and in addition have established players with the X-factor, like Richie McCaw and Dan Carter (starting on the bench this week, but sure to come on), and potential future superstars, like Zac Guildford and Robbie Fruean (also rested and on the bench, but a good bet to play in the second half) amongst others, to cause havoc with the best opposition.

Against the Lions they will in all probability, barring the unlikely and unforeseen, establish dominance early on and the challenge will be to maintain their intensity and their structure against the unstructured Lions.

In his column on the Crusaders website, coach Todd Blackadder expressed his satisfaction with his team's preparation for matches, which he described as "outstanding for the last couple of weeks and we’ve reaped the rewards with good wins over the Blues and Chiefs.

He added: "The strategies that we’ve prepared for each opponent have been spot-on and the players take a lot of ownership of that."

On the Lions specifically, Blackadder commented that they would be playing "a team which is coming to the end of a tough Australasian tour and hasn’t picked up the results that it would have liked".

"The Lions are a better side than the one that lost heavily against the Waratahs in Sydney last weekend and they will be pushing hard for a good performance," the coach concluded.

But we all know that the home team is by some way the stronger team and that the visitors are under siege, on and off the field - and their selection musical chairs each week cannot but undermine the confidence of the players.

Footnote: Dan Carter needs four points to take his Super Rugby tally to 1000, and 23 points to draw level with Stirling Mortlock's total of 1019. Can he achieve both milestones in this game?

Super 14 results:
2009: Crusaders won 32-20 (Johannesburg)
2008: Crusaders won 31-6 (Christchurch)
2007: Lions won 9-3 (Johannesburg)
2006: Crusaders won 43-15 (Christchurch)  

rugby365.com Prediction: The Lions will again play with enthusiasm and their attack will cause a few problems for the Crusaders. But unless they lift their game as a whole, they could get thumped all over again. If their defence is better, they could make a game of it, but it would come as a surpise if they were to run the Crusaders close. The home team should win by 20 or 30 points at least.

Teams:

Crusaders: 15 Jared Payne, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Adam Whitelock, 12 Ryan Crotty, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Colin Slade, 9 Kahn Fotuali'i, 8 Thomas Waldrom, 7 Jonathan Poff, 6 Richie McCaw (captain), 5 Isaac Ross, 4 Sam Whitelock, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Ti'i Paulo, 1 Ben Franks.
Replacements: 16 Corey Flynn, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Chris Jack, 19 George Whitelock, 20 Willi Heinz, 21 Daniel Carter, 22 Robbie Fruean.

Lions: 15 Earl Rose, 14 Wigan Pekeur, 13 Walter Venter, 12 Doppies la Grange, 11 Wandile Mjekevu, 10 Burton Francis, 9 Jano Vermaak, 8 Todd Clever, 7 Derick Minnie, 6 Cobus Grobbelaar (captain), 5 Franco van der Merwe, 4 George Earle, 3 Ross Geldenhuys, 2 Hannes Franklin, 1 JC Janse van Rensburg.
Replacements: 16 Charles Emslie, 17 Heinke van der Merwe, 18 Willem Stoltz, 19 Robert Kruger / Jacques Lombaard, 20 Jacques Coetzee, 21 Carlos Spencer, 22 Michael Killian.

Referee: Keith Brown (New Zealand)
Assistant referees: Matthew Stanish (New Zealand), James McPhail (New Zealand)
TMO: Ben Skeen (New Zealand)

By Len Kaplan

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