Preview: S14 - Round 10, Part One
Thu, 17 Apr 2008 00:43
Tall timber: The Chiefs reaching high
Only five rounds of Super 14 matches remain before the semifinal teams and venues are finalised, which means that every result will carry added meaning as the sides scrap for those top four spots.
The tournament is now truly entering the crunch phase, and one slip-up from here on in could well make the difference between scraping fourth place and ending the season early.
The Crusaders are probably a safe bet for a semifinal spot at this stage, with a huge lead of seven points over the Sharks in second place, and a truly mammoth 13 point lead over the fifth-placed Blues.
But only three points separate third from eighth at the moment, and it will be most interesting to see how the mid-table battle unfolds over the next five weeks.
The teams chasing the unbeaten Crusaders and Sharks include the Hurricanes, Waratahs, Blues, Force, Stormers and Chiefs. These six teams will be fighting tooth and nail to get into that top four, and their match schedules become all important in terms of home and away venues.
The ninth-placed Brumbies are also still in with a remote chance to make the semis, but the fact that they still have to travel to South Africa counts heavily against them.
Let's see what's in store this weekend...
Friday, 18 April
Chiefs v Crusaders
Waikato Stadium, Hamilton, 19.35 (07.35 GMT)
The Chiefs managed to do the dirty on the Crusaders last year, which will be an important mental factor for them as they attempt to duplicate that result.
But they'd do well to ignore the results of the previous eight years against the Red and Blacks though - they lost every encounter against the 'Saders from 1999 to 2006.
The Crusaders are still the benchmark, as they have been every week of this year's competition. They have shown repeatedly that they can function on many levels, and illustrated this last week when their second string stepped up a notch in the second half against the Lions.
The Cantabrians are of course human, which means that they are beatable. But it remains to be seen if any team can come up with a recipe to do that this year. And judging by the many extra 'gears' that the Christchurch outfit seem to possess, defeat seems highly unlikely.
To be fair to the Chiefs, at home they are probably as likely as anyone to turn over the 'Saders.
They seem to have put their patchy form behind them, and are playing some very good rugby indeed. They even managed to pick up a rare away win against the Brumbies in Week Eight. The team has been very dangerous on attack over the middle part of the tournament, scoring eighteen tries in their previous three matches.
Their bye last week has given them some vital recovery time, and a refreshed squad awaits the Crusaders at Waikato Stadium on Friday.
All eyes will once again be on the battle in the loose between the loose trios of the Chiefs and the Crusaders. Lauaki, Latimer and Messam will be more than keen to put McCaw, Tuiali'i and Read out of business.
The battle of the backs will be a fascinating one. For the Crusaders, Stephen Brett returns from injury to solve their problems at flyhalf in the absence of Dan Carter, while the Chiefs have captain Mils Muliaina back at No.15 after he limped off halfway through their last match.
If there is one area where the Chiefs hold the advantage, it is at wing and fullback. Their back three have improved steadily over the weeks, and they have grown into the formidable unit they always promised to be, with Lelia Masaga, Muliaina and the sublime Sitiveni Sivivatu responsible for a multitude of Chiefs points.
The duel at centre between the defensive skills of Richard Kahui and the rampant Casey Laulala should also provide fireworks, and will go a long way in determining which side's outside backs will be enjoying possession in space.
The halfback pairings are not to be forgotten.
Chiefs kingpins Brendon Leonard and Steven Donald have been flawless over the past weeks, and will provide a serious challenge that the talented Andrew Ellis and Stephen Brett will have to overcome if the 'Saders are to remain unbeaten.
This match should prove to be the toughest examination of the Crusaders' abilities thus far in 2008.
If the Chiefs do manage a win, it might just give the men from Waikato the belief to defy their unfavourable run-in, and snatch a semifinal spot against the odds, come the middle of May.
Recent results:
2007: Chiefs won 30-24, Christchurch
2006: Crusaders won 25-19, Hamilton
Prediction: The Chiefs will push the Crusaders all the way, but the Red and Blacks will engage in that extra gear near the end, as usual. Crusaders to win by 7 points.
Teams:
Chiefs: 15
Mils Muliaina (captain), 14 Lelia Masaga, 13 Richard Kahui, 12 Callum Bruce, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Stephen Donald, 9 Brendon Leonard, 8 Sione Lauaki, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Kevin O’Neill, 4 Toby Lynn, 3 Ben Castle, 2 Tom Willis, 1 Simms Davison.
Replacements: 16 Aled de Malmanche, 17 Ben May, 18 Jay Williams, 19 Faifili Levave, 20 Jamie Nutbrown, 21 Dwayne Sweeney, 22 Sosene Anesi.
Crusaders: 15 Scott Hamilton, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Casey Laulala, 12 Tim Bateman, 11 Caleb Ralph, 10 Stephen Brett, 9 Andrew Ellis, 8 Mose Tuiali'i, 7 Richie McCaw (captain), 6 Kieran Read, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Corey Flynn, 1 Ben Franks.
Replacements: 16 Ti'i Paulo, 17 Wyatt Crockett, 18 Ross Filipo, 19 Nasi Manu, 20 Kahn Fotuali'i, 21 Hamish Gard, 22 Kade Poki.
Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Touch judges: Steve Walsh (New Zealand),
Brent Murray (New Zealand)
Television match official: Glenn Newman (New Zealand)
Assessor: Kim Eichmann (New Zealand)
Reds v Western Force
Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane, 19.40 (09.40 GMT)
An Australian derby awaits in Brisbane, and as we know well by now, the form book is supposed to be useless in matches that involve local bragging rights.
The major news for this clash is that the Force will be without influential playmaker Matt Giteau, who sustained a nasty concussion in the loss against the Waratahs in Perth last weekend.
Lachlan Turner takes over the reigns at pivot, although it remains to be seen whether anyone can get the very capable Force backline firing in the Giteau's absence.
The Force have been experiencing a dip in form recently, and the injury to their main man has come at a bad time. Last weekend's loss to the 'Tahs could well turn out to be the crucial result of their season, seeing that both teams are in the running for probably third or fourth spot on the log.
But the competition will be fierce for those semifinal spots, and every week the pressure will intensify. Once again one has to look at the run-in, and the Force have a reasonably good one.
They have two home and two away games left, and only need to spend one week outside of Australia. The bad news is that they only have four games left as opposed to five for most of the other semifinal spot contenders, which translates into having less power over their own destiny.
Wing Haig Sare makes his first start of the season after his long suspension. Sare was of course the other half of the infamous Fremantle barroom brawl at the start of the season that resulted in Matt Henjak's expulsion from rugby, and Sare's admission to an operating theatre for a badly broken jaw.
The Reds seemed to have had their mini-run of form ended by the Cheetahs in Bloemfontein two weekends ago, but a home tie could give them a boost against the stuttering Force.
They have also had some setbacks of their own this week, and had to appoint their fourth captain of the season in James Horwill when it became apparent that Sam Cordingley would not be fit for Friday's clash.
Mercurial Wallaby fullback Chris Latham will also be missing for the Reds, and that will put a severe dent in their attacking abilities. Latham has been a real driving force and a leader for them, and he will be sorely missed.
Clinton Schifcofske moves from wing to fullback to cover for Latham, with the lively Brando Va'aulu getting a chance to start on the right wing. He will be up against the experienced, but one-footed Drew Mitchell, who still amazes me every week when he sells his 'right-foot-kick' dummy.
Ryan Cross and Scott Staniforth form a very solid and industrious centre pairing for the Force that should have the beating of Morgan Turinui and Berrick Barnes. At the same token, they will have to find new ways of making use of possession with the unfamiliar MacKay at pivot.
The Perth franchise might just get away without a recognised flyhalf, considering the limited impact that Reds No.10 Quade Cooper has managed to exert on the competition this year.
The loose trios will be visible in this clash, and the mobility of Fava, Brown and Pocock will be countered by the aggression and physicality of Roe, Croft and Houston for the Reds.
All in all, this match represents a chance for the Force to keep their fading semifinal hopes from going the way of the dodo.
Recent results:
2007: Force won 38-3, Perth
2006: Reds won 29-18, Brisbane
Prediction: The Reds won't be able to match the motivation of the Force, who will be desperate to reach the semifinals. Force to win by 10 points.
Teams:
Reds: 15 Clinton Schifcofske, 14 Brando Va'aulu, 13 Morgan Turinui, 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Peter Hynes, 10 Quade Cooper, 9 Ben Lucas, 8 Leroy Houston, 7 David Croft, 6 John Roe, 5 James Horwill (captain), 4 Van Humphries, 3 Dayna Edwards, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Ben Coutts.
Replacements: 16 Sean Hardman, 17 Rodney Blake, 18 Ed O'Donoghue, 19 Poutasi Luafutu, 20 Will Genia, 21 Andrew Walker, 22 Charlie Fetoai.
Western Force: 15 Cameron Shepherd, 14 Haig Sare, 13 Ryan Cross, 12 Scott Staniforth (vice-captain), 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Lachlan MacKay, 9 Chris O'Young, 8 Richard Brown, 7 David Pocock, 6 Scott Fava, 5 Nathan Sharpe (captain), 4 Tom Hockings, 3 Troy Takiari, 2 Tai McIsaac, 1 Pek Cowan.
Replacements: 16 Luke Holmes, 17 AJ Whalley, 18 Sam Wykes, 19 Tamaiti Horua, 20 James Stannard, 21 James O'Connor, 22 Nick Cummins.
Referee:
Stuart Dickinson (Australia)
Touch judges: Julian Pritchard (Australia), Simon Moore (Australia)
Television match official: George Ayoub (Australia)
Assessor: Wayne Erickson (Australia)
Saturday, 19 April
Waratahs v Lions
Sydney Football Stadium, Sydney, 17.30 (07.30 GMT)
I have a feeling the Waratahs are going to be one of the unfortunate teams to just miss out on qualification for the semifinals, which might sound daft considering they are in fourth place at the moment and look fairly certain to pick up another win on Saturday.
They face the hapless Lions in Sydney, and a big bonus point victory for the 'Tahs could put them into second place temporarily, above the Sharks, who play the Brumbies later on the same day.
But the Sydney outfit, like the Chiefs and the Brumbies, still have the tough task of travelling to South African shores at the business end of the tournament, and it will be tough on them after a long season.
They also still have to face the Sharks and the Stormers, and have more away games than home fixtures left in the round-robin phase. In other words, a very difficult run-in.
Let's return to the present. Five points have never seemed so tantalisingly up for grabs against a Lions team that has been ready for the taking for some time, and languishes rudderless at the foot of the standings.
The Lions' 6-3 half-time lead against the Crusaders last week turned out to represent nothing more than a death rattle, and it is very hard to see how they can turn things around.
Sure, they will have various first-choice players back for the Sydney match, such as Jaco Pretorius at centre, Jano Vermaak at scrumhalf, and Willie Wepener at hooker. But whether it will make much of a difference, other than minimising the deficit, is doubtful. The Lions need renewal and inspiration, and those things are hard to come by on a gruelling tour when you're down and out.
The New South Wales-based franchise will have taken heart from their win over the Force in Perth, where they managed to pull the wool over the eyes of one of their main rivals for a semi spot, albeit rather fortuitously.
The Waratahs also have a superb record against the Lions. They have only lost once against the Johannesburgers in the history of Super rugby, and that was way back in 2001.
It is also interesting to note that the 'Tahs hold massive advantages in comparative records. They have scored 50 tries in total against the Lions, to a reply of only 15. The Sydney-based team have outscored the lions 389-169, and have stacked up a mammoth 44 log points against the Lions, to a meagre four points to the Highveld team.
So it is clear that history is heavily stacked against Loffie Eloff's men. And as the maxim goes, it is more than likely that history will indeed repeat itself in this case.
Recent results:
2007: Waratahs won 25-16, Johannesburg
2006: Waratahs won 50-3, Sydney
Prediction: The 'Tahs will do everything in their power to claim all five points before the hard part of their season begins. The Lions will be powerless to stop them. Waratahs to win by 20 points.
Teams:
Waratahs: 15 Sam Norton-Knight, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Rob Horne, 12 Tom Carter, 11 Lote Tuqiri, 10 Kurtley Beale, 9 Luke Burgess, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Phil Waugh (captain), 6 Dean Mumm, 5 Dan Vickerman, 4 Will Caldwell, 3 Matt Dunning, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Adam Freier, 17 Al Baxter, 18 David Lyons, 19 Beau Robinson, 20 Brett Sheehan, 21 Matt Carraro, 22 Alfi Mafi.
Auto & General Lions: 15 Louis Ludik, 14 Dusty Noble, 13 Jaco Pretorius, 12 Doppies la Grange, 11 Ryno Benjamin,
10 Jaco van Schalkwyk, 9 Jano Vermaak, 8 Willem Alberts, 7 Joe van Niekerk, 6 Cobus Grobbelaar (captain), 5 Gerhard Mostert, 4 Dewald Senekal, 3 JC Janse van Rensburg, 2 Willie Wepener, 1 Heinke van der Merwe,
Replacements: 16 Ethienne Reynecke, 17 Ross Geldenhuys, 18 Franco van der Merwe, 19 Wilhelm Koch, 20 Chris Jonck, 21 Rudi Vogt, 22 Jannie Boshoff.
Referee: Kelvin Deaker (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Chris Pollock (New Zealand), Nathan Pearce (Australia)
Television match official: Steve Leszczynski (Australia)
Assessor: Scott Young (Australia)
By Phil Coetzer
