Preview: S14 - Round 12, Part Two
Thu, 01 May 2008 17:15
Hurricane warning: Maa Nonu on the charge
Every week I say it's crunch time. But this week I mean it! There are three rounds to go and only the Crusaders look like shoe-ins for the semifinals.
The Sharks loss to the 'Tahs mean that they have fallen back in the pack, opening the door for the Chiefs, Hurricanes and Stormers to overtake them on the standings this weekend.
The Waratahs are now second on the standings but face a tough three weeks on the road.
It's perfectly set-up for a grand finale come Round 13. One point separates the third-placed Sharks from the sixth-placed Stormers, it's that tight!
This Saturday sees some crucial clashes, with the teams out of the play-off running set to play an important role.
The 11th-placed Bulls can do the Sharks and Stormers a huge favour if they beat the Waratahs in Pretoria on Saturday. Likewise the Lions, who have a tough assignment against the Hurricanes. A Bulls upset seems the more likely of the two, but the Lions showed against the Brumbies last week that they are capable of causing an upset.
The Stormers host their nemesis, the Brumbies in the final clash of the weekend, and will be hard pressed without the services of their best player in Schalk Burger.
Lets take a look at all of Saturday's scintillating action!
Saturday, May 3
Hurricanes v Auto & General Lions
Westpac Stadium, Wellington, 19.35 (07.35 GMT)
The Lions haven't won since Round One. Surely that's enough proof to suggest that the 'Canes should walk this one? I'm not convinced.
The Lions were terribly unlucky not to beat the Brumbies last weekend. Were it not for some dubious calls by the referee, they could have won. But they showed enough improvement to suggest they might give the 'Canes a go.
But they will need to start well. If they don't it will be one way traffic.
One advantage that the Lions have is the travel factor. They have had a short trip over the Tasman Sea whilst the 'Canes have had to endure the long haul from South Africa. This could play a role. One cannot underestimate the how travelling takes it out of you, and I suspect the Lions will give it their all in an attempt to break their horrific win drought.
Whether they have the class at their disposal is another question all together. They have created plenty of try-scoring opportunities this season but their finishing as been abysmal. If you get a chance at Super 14 level, you need to convert. The Lions have learnt the hard way. That's why they occupy 14th place.
The 'Canes will still be without Jerry Collins but Scott Waldrom showed last week that he is a more than able replacement.
There is plenty riding on this one for the 'Canes. They are one point behind the fourth-placed Chiefs so they desperately need a win to stay in the hunt for the play-offs. It's so tight at the top that one slip up could spell disaster.
The Lions have no such aspirations to play for. But they will be depserate for a win. Skipper Cobus Grobbelaar said after their Waratahs loss that they wanted to win at least one game on tour. They've left it rather late but a win on Saturday will lift their wailing spirits somewhat.
On paper their is no way that the Lions can compete with the home side. The Lions have Joe van Niekerk. The 'Canes have Ma'a Nonu, Piri Weepu, Rodney So'oialo, Chris Masoe, Jason Eaton, Andrew Hore. You get my point.
Perhaps I'm being a little harsh on the Lions. Skipper 'Baywatch' Grobbelaar has never stopped trying this year and has lead his team by example. No.9 Jano Vermaak has showed he has talent, while Walter Venter has impressed of late.
But the Lions need a team effort on Saturday. And they need to round off their chances. It's that simple. Coach Eugene Eloff has bemoaned some of his players' commitment. Well it's high time his players answered his coach's calls and went out and gave it 100 percent.
Anything less and they will come home empty handed.
Prediction: Call be stupid or stark-raving mad but I think the Lions could spring the upset of the century in Wellington. The 'Canes are due for a bad game and i think this could be it! Lions by seven! There, I've put my head on the block!
Recent results:
2007: Lions won 30-7, Johannesburg
2006: Hurricanes won 29-16, Wellington
Teams:
Hurricanes: 15 Cory Jane, 14 Shannon Paku, 13 Tane Tu'ipulotu, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Zac Guildford, 10 Willie Ripia, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Rodney So'oialo (captain), 7 Scott Waldrom, 6 Chris Masoe, 5 Jason Eaton, 4 Jeremy Thrush, 3 Tim Fairbrother, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 John Schwalger.
Replacements: 16 Hikawera Elliot, 17 Jacob Ellison, 18 Craig Clarke, 19 Thomas Waldrom, 20 Alby Mathewson, 21 Jimmy Gopperth, 22
Conrad Smith.
Auto and General Lions: 15 Earl Rose, 14 Jannie Boshoff, 13 Walter Venter, 12 Doppies la Grange, 11 Dusty Noble, 10 Jaco van Schalkwyk, 9 Jano Vermaak, 8 Joe van Niekerk, 7 Franco van der Merwe, 6 Cobus Grobbelaar (captain), 5 Gerhard Mostert, 4 Dewald Senekal, 3 JC Janse van Rensburg, 2 Willie Wepener, 1 Heinke van der Merwe.
Replacements: 16 Ethienne Reynecke, 17 Ross Geldenhuys, 18 Cobus Grobbler, 19 Wilhelm Koch, 20 Chris Jonck, 21 Rudi Vogt, 22 Louis Ludik.
Referee: Matt Goddard (Australia)
Touch judges: Julian Pritchard (Australia), Garratt Williamson (New Zealand)
Television match official: Ben Skeen (New Zealand)
Assessor: Stuart Beissel (New Zealand)
Western Force v Chiefs
Subiaco Oval, Perth, 17.40 (09.40 GMT)
The Force's season has been a disappointment. At the halfway stage, they were in the thick of the semifinal hopefuls, but a string of poor results has all but distinguished their play-off chances.
It's a mystery has to why the Force perform so badly on their home turf. They have struggled at Subiaco Oval for three seasons now and I suspect they will struggle once again against a red-hot Chiefs team.
The Chiefs are at full strength while the Force are beset with injuries.
Force coach John Mitchell has named 17-year-old James O'Connor at inside centre. It's a big call from Mitchell to hand the schoolboy his first start against such a potent Chiefs backline. There is no doubt in my mind that the Chiefs will see the youngster as a potential weakness.
The Chiefs are in fourth position but need to win to stay in the play-off places. And there is no reason to suggest that they won't.
The competition's top scorer this year, Stephen Donald, has been quite brilliant during the second half of the competition. His all-round game has been second to none and he has afforded space for his try-scoring machines out wide.
Those try-scoring machines I am referring to are Lelia Masaga and Sitiveni Sivivatu. Give them space and you will pay the ultimate price. The Force will need to put pressure on the Chiefs pack to keep the speedy wings influence on the game down to a minimum.
One-on-one battles are often hyped about, but in a fifteen man game, they seldom materialise. But if I had to pick one battle worth commenting about, it would be the flyhalves.
I've mentioned Donald's credentials, and I needn't mention Matt Giteau's! The Force No.10 is one of the most gifted players on world rugby and has a massive impact on the Force's fortunes. He has an uncanny ability to ease through gaps and put players around him into space. If the Force are going to win this one, Giteau will need to take charge.
Force coach John Mitchell, himself a Waikato legend, said the Chiefs had timed their run to the semifinals to perfection, claiming some big scalps along the way.
"They are the only team to beat the Crusaders and did so by matching their physicality and building and sustaining pressure on them for the full eighty minutes," said Mitchell.
"Their scrum has been outstanding and their forward play, particularly around their loose forward trio has paved the way for a lot of their wins," he noted.
Mitchell said his side was looking to recapture its early-season form, rather than looking towards the pipe dream of claiming a near impossible semifinal.
"We can't afford to focus on factors we can't control, so our sole focus is on playing our best rugby from now until the end of our campaign, whenever that happens to be," he said.
It's sure to be at the end of the round-robin stage as they require a freaky run of results to se them through.
We have chatted about how good the Chiefs backs are, but credit needs to go to the pack for giving them quality ball. Their front row has been solid this season and their giant No.8 Sione Lauaki can wreak havoc on his day.
If Lauaki is in the mood, as he has the tendency to drift through games, he will be hugely influential. It takes two or three to bring him down every time, sucking in defenders to give his backs some space.
I just have the feeling that the visitors have too much firepower for the Force. As Mitchell said, they are the only team to have beaten the Crusaders this year, and that says plenty, and they will keep their semifinal dreams on track at the Subiaco Oval on Saturday.
Prediction: The Force have struggled on their home turf since their inception. Saturday will be no different. Chiefs by 18 points!
Recent results:
2007: Chiefs won 64-36, Hamilton
2006: Chiefs won 29-9, Perth
Teams:
Western Force: 15 Cameron
Shepherd, 14 Nick Cummins, 13 Ryan Cross, 12 James O'Connor, 11 Drew Mitchell, 10 Matt Giteau (vice-captain), 9 James Stannard, 8 Matt Hodgson, 7 David Pocock, 6 Scott Fava, 5 Nathan Sharpe (captain), 4 David Pusey, 3 Troy Takiari, 2 Tai McIsaac, 1 Pek Cowan.
Replacements: 16 Luke Holmes, 17 Kieran Longbottom, 18 Sitaleki Timani, 19 Richard Brown, 20 Chris O'Young, 21 Scott Daruda, 22 Dane Haylett-Petty.
Chiefs: 15 Mils Muliaina (captain), 14 Lelia Masaga, 13 Richard Kahui, 12 Callum Bruce, 11 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 10 Stephen Donald, 9 Jamie Nutbrown, 8 Sione Lauaki, 7 Tanerau Latimer, 6 Liam Messam, 5 Kevin O'Neill, 4 Toby Lynn, 3 Ben May, 2 Tom Willis, 1 Simms Davison.
Replacements: 16 Aled de Malmanche, 17 Ben Castle, 18 Jay Williams, 19 Faifili Levave, 20 David Bason, 21 Dwayne Sweeney, 22 Sosene Anesi.
Referee: Marius Jonker (South Africa)
Touch judges: Mark Lawrence
(South Africa), D Mitchelmore (Australia)
Television match official: George Ayoub (Australia)
Assessor: Andrew Cole (Australia), Stuart Beissel (New Zealand)
Bulls v Waratahs
Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria, 15.00 (13.00 GMT)
The defending champions have relinquished their Super 14 crown in the tamest of manners this season and find themselves playing for pride and their fellow countrymen!
This match has a massive bearing on what happens at the top of the table. The Waratahs are in second place, four points ahead of the Sharks and five ahead of the Stormers. The Bulls can do the two South African coastal teams a huge favour by beating the 'Tahs at Loftus.
It's a big ask. Phil Waugh's men are enjoying one of their best runs for many years - in stark contrast to the Bulls.
Bakkies Botha is taking them to court in a bid to release him from his contract and their coach in under immense pressure. It can't really get any worse for them.
They will be expected to lose so they can really go out on Saturday and play with vigour.
The 'Tahs have shown of late they can hold on to the ball for extended periods of time, so the Bulls must not kick away too much ball - something they have been guilty of this season. Although against the Highlanders two weeks ago they showed that they can still play some decent rugby.
I'm looking forward to seeing the young No.9 Francois Hougaard in action. It's his first Super 14 start of his career, and there is no doubting his talent. He is definitely one to watch for the future.
Hougaard's battle with Luke Burgess is going to be a cracker! Burgess is one of the front runners to wear the Wallaby No.9 jersey after a great season so far. Keep a close eye on these two youngsters on Saturday!
The 'Tahs welcome back Rocky Elsom after an extending stint on the sidelines. His return rounds off a formidable loose trio for the visitors. Skipper Phil Waugh's boundless energy has been nothing short of brilliant this season, whilst Wycliff Palu's performance against the Sharks last week was awesome.
Palu's power, combined with Elsom's strength and workrate, as well as Waugh's ability on the ground, makes them a challenging prospect for Spies, Van Heerden and Stegmann.
Wikus van Heerden is a great fetcher in his own right - his battle with Waugh with be a real dog fight, and one that could determine the outcome.
For the Bulls it will be a matter of exorcising their demons if they want to win. They have the players, of that there is no doubt. But they have lacked the commitment and have not shown enough character.
Now would be a good time to change that!
One thing is for certain - all Sharks and Stormers fans will be keeping a close eye on proceedings in the Bull ring on Saturday.
Prediction: If one had to look at the form book, the 'Tahs should win this one easily. But the Bulls will do the Sharks and Stormers a massive favour in Pretoria by pipping the boys from Sydney. Bulls by five points!
Recent results:
2007: Bulls won 32-19, Sydney
2006: Bulls won 26-17, Pretoria
Teams:
Bulls: 15 Zane Kirchner, 14 Akona Ndungane, 13 JP Nel, 12 Wynand Olivier, 11 Bryan Habana (vice-captain), 10 Morné Steyn, 9 Francois Hougaard, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Wikus van Heerden (captain), 6 Deon Stegmann, 5 Wilhelm Steenkamp, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 Werner Kruger, 2 Derick Kuün, 1 Gürthro Steenkamp.
Replacements: 16 Bandise Maku, 17 Rayno Gerber, 18 Jaco Engels, 19 Danie Rossouw, 20 Fourie du Preez, 21 Derick Hougaard, 22 Pedrie Wannenburg.
Waratahs: 15 Sam Norton-Knight, 14 Lachie Turner, 13 Rob Horne, 12 Tom Carter, 11 Lote Tuqiri, 10 Kurtley Beale, 9 Luke
Burgess, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Phil Waugh (captain), 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Dan Vickerman,
4 Dean Mumm, 3 Al Baxter, 2 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Adam Freier, 17 Matt Dunning, 18 Will Caldwell, 19 David Lyons, 20 Sekope Kepu, 21 Matt Carraro, 22 Brett Sheehan.
Referee: Lyndon Bray (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Brent Murray (New Zealand), Pro Legoete (South Africa)
Television match official: Michael Cupido (South Africa)
Assessor: Banks Yantolo (South Africa)
Stormers v Brumbies
Newlands, Cape Town, 17.00 (15.00 GMT)
Schalk Burger. Those two words say a lot. The Stormers have lost the services of their talisman for the remainder of the Super 14. It remains to be seem how they will adapt without the bussling Burger.
It's a massive occasion for both teams at Newlands. A win is the only option for the Brumbies to keep their play-off hopes alive. The Stormers also need a win to keep their destiny in their own hands and possibly secure a home semifinal.
It's going to be a pressure-cooker environment and with the Brumbies superior record against the Cape outfit, this one could well go down to the wire.
Pressure does funny things to a player, and with a number of inexperienced players on both sides, it will be interesting to see how these players deal with the expectations.
Robbie Diack is Burger's replacement. He is big and physical and has Super 14 experience, so he should adapt to the pace of the match immediately. His performance against the Crusaders in Round Three showed that he belongs at this level.
Diack will wear the No.8 jersey which means that Luke Watson has shifted back to the flank. Watson has been afforded a free roaming role by Rassie Erasmus this season and has reveled in his new-found freedom. He has linked superbly with the backline, but I suspect he will need to change his game somewhat on Saturday.
The Brumbies have one of the best fetching flanks in the business in George Smith. He will cause havoc at the breakdown if he is allowed to. Watson and Francois Louw will have their work cut out to stop Smith stealing valuable ball all day.
We have seen so many times this season how important the breakdown is, and Saturday will be no different.
The match-up that I am looking forward to is the battle of the two skippers in the midfield. The Stormers' Jean de Villiers has been the catalyst for his team's revival this season, and is the engineer in so many of their attacking moves. He is big and can set up second phase, but is real strength is his ability to find the gap and put other players into space.
I would like to see De Villiers having a crack at Tyrone Smith on a few occasions to try rattle the brother of George.
Stirling Mortlock needs no introduction. He is a revered No.13 and a constant threat on attack. He will definitely test the defensive capabilities of Gcobani Bobo and De Villiers. If the Stormers can shut out the Mortlock threat, they will be halfway there.
Brumbies No.10 Christian Lealiifano has come on in leaps and bounds this season. But he is young and still has a lot to learn at this level. The Stormers loose trio need to pressurise the youngster and make his life a misery. If they can succeed in this, the likes of Mortlock will not be afforded the space that he needs.
Stormers flyhalf Peter Grant has been in sparkling form after an indifferent start to the season. He is deceptively big for a flyhalf and enjoys taking on the opposition. I will be fascinated to see whether he targets his counterpart. I'm sure he will!
Stormers lock Andries Bekker has been inspirational this season. At 2.08 meters tall, his presence in the line-out has been immense. But it's been in open play that he has thrived. His ability to support the ball carrier is superb for a tight forward and his team will be looking for more of the same from the big Bekker.
Bekker's opposite number Mark Chisholm is in a similar mould to him. He features a lot on attack and scores plenty of tries for a lock forward. Not only will his battle with Bekker in the line-outs be key, but their workrate in open play will be influential.
Brumbies coach Laurie Fisher is aware of the threat that the Stormers pose, especially their line-out.
"The Stormers are one of, if not the form team of the competition and we realise that we'll require a much-improved performance on last week [against the Lions]," he said.
"They've performed very well on the back of a line-out that's operating at 91 percent.
"We've had a focus on our set-piece to make sure we're not giving away any free possession as well as ensuring we get pay for any opportunities we create," he concluded.
It's going to be a nailbiter I suspect, with one or two incidents decided the outcome.
Prediction: The Stormers haven't beaten the Brumbies in 10 years. Injuries to key players has made life difficult for them, but they should sneak this one with the confidence they have at the moment! Stormers by six points!
Recent results:
2007: Brumbies won 26-13, Canberra
2006: 15-all draw, Cape Town
Teams:
Stormers: 15 Conrad Jantjes, 14 Wylie Human, 13 Gcobani Bobo, 12 Jean de Villiers (captain), 11 Sireli Naqelevuki, 10 Peter Grant, 9 Ricky January, 8 Robbie Diack, 7 Francois Louw, 6 Luke Watson, 5 Andries Bekker, 4 Adriaan Fondse, 3 Brok Harris, 2 Schalk Brits, 1 Brian Mujati.
Replacements: 16 Deon Fourie, 17 Schalk Ferreira, 18 Ross Skeate, 19 Pieter Myburgh, 20 Bolla Conradie, 21 Tony Brown, 22 Dylan des Fountain.
Brumbies: 15 Mark Gerrard, 14 Adam
Ashley-Cooper, 13 Stirling Mortlock (captain),12 Tyrone Smith, 11 Francis Fainifo, 10 Christian Lealiifano, 9 Patrick Phibbs, 8 Julian Salvi, 7 George Smith, 6 Stephen Hoiles, 5 Mark Chisholm, 4 Alister Campbell, 3 Salesi Ma'afu, 2 Saia Faingaa, 1 Nic Henderson.
Replacements: 16 John Ulugia, 17 Guy Shepherdson, 18 Peter Kimlin, 19 Ben Alexander, 20 Mitchell Chapman, 21 Josh Holmes, 22 Afusipa Taumoepeau.
Referee: Steve Walsh (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Vinny Munro (New Zealand), Phillip Bosch (South Africa)
Television match official: Shaun Veldsman (South Africa)
Assessor: Dennis Immelman (South Africa)
By Steve Farrell
