Preview: New Zealand vs South Africa
Fri, 04 Jul 2008 11:53
Give them horns: Bok fans will be getting behind their team
There is no team in the world that South Africa would rather beat than New Zealand. There is no team in the world that New Zealand would rather beat than South Africa, only much more so this year.
The premature exit of the All Blacks form the 2007 World Cup severely damaged New Zealand's national psyche. Not that South Africa had anything to do with it other than winning the thing, which makes them a bigger than ever target for New Zealand ire and desire for vengeance. The same thing happened in 1995.
When it comes to rugby, New Zealanders have poor memories - they do not forget! They will dredge up all manner of wrongs against then from 1949, 1976, 1986 and 1995 and to them South Africa stole what was theirs. The Tri-Nations is the start of the "real World Cup", whatever that belatedly means.
While the New Zealanders are set on righting what they see as wrong, the South Africans seem content to believe that they are somehow superior and are in a good place to win in New Zealand for the second time since the Tri-Nations began in 1996.
Where South African confidence stems from is not immediately clear as their three Tests this year - two against Wales, one against Italy, all won - were not convincing, not as convincing as the two New Zealand victories over England. At not time did South Africa look as efficiently and smoothly in charge as New Zealand did in its Tests. In fact the South African back division has been functioning without rhythm while with Daniel Carter back in for the All Blacks look the polished product.
Add to this South African selections that seem to have too little to do with selecting the best rugby team and you wonder where South Africa's sanguinity comes from. The selection of Joe van Niekerk and Luke Watson ahead of Pierre Spies and Ryan Kankowski is mysterious. It's hard to believe that Frans Steyn cannot get a place, unless it has something to do with his determination to play flyhalf and nowhere else. And the all-round abilities of Ruan Pienaar are not enough for a place on the bench. Having him there creates a place for an extra forward.
That leaves the forward battle. South Africa is likely to win the line-out duel with three outstanding jumpers while New Zealand battled against England on their own throw and made no impression on England when England threw in. If Ali Williams does not play they could find it an even bigger problem as the scrap between abrasive Williams and abrasive Bakkies Botha could have been one of the match's interesting match-ups.
The front rows may be a different kettle of fish altogether. South Africa have two poor scrummagers as props - big and handy about the field but wonky in the scrums. New Zealand on the other hand have good scrummaging props and are proud that they have more in reserve.
At loose forward New Zealand will feel the loss of Richie McCaw who can do everything any loose forward in the world can do and better. Their present arrangement does not look nearly as convincing as when McCaw is there while South Africa have competitive Schalk Burger of boundless energy and the noble presence of Juan Smith.
It is in the backs that the difference between the two sides is most likely to tell. Dan Carter can do more than Butch James can do with the ball in hand though the Springbok is likely to give him as little scope as possible. Jean de Villiers is playing well but Ma'a Nonu is also playing well and is more effective on the hoof. Who is going to tackle the maned All Black, especially if Burger has leave of absence for a while?
At outside centre Conrad Smith seems to have too much in strength and speed for Adi Jacobs, but really it is in synchronised approach that the All Blacks seem to have a decided edge. For one thing they always have an eye out for counterattack possibilities. Conrad Jantjes has that occasionally and Bryan Habana often but it tends to depend on individuals rather than act as a shining principleof the team. Given half a chance New Zealand will attack.
Players to Watch: Daniel Carter (New Zealand), of course. The whole world watches him with envious eyes. Something similar is true of Bryan Habana (South Africa) who has been largely starved of opportunities so far this year. It's tough when your own side does not want you to have space.
Head to Head: It's there in nearly every position - combative Enrico Januarie (South Africa) vs lively Andy Ellis (New Zealand); sophisticated Jean de Villiers (South Africa) against robust Ma'a Nonu (New Zealand), newboy Rudi Wulf (New Zealand) against newboy Odwa Ndungane (South Africa); strong and fast Sitiveni Sivivatu (New Zealand) vs elusive and speedy Bryan Habana (South Africa); multi-talented, effective Dan Carter against determined, hard, effective Butch James (South Africa); strong, relentless Brad Thorn (New Zealand) against strong, combative Bakkies Botha (South Africa) who has astonishing skills for a lock forward.
Previous Results in Tri-Nations:
2007: New Zealand won 26-21 in Durban
2007: New Zealand won 33-6 in Christchurch
2006: New Zealand won 35-17 in Wellington
2006: New Zealand won 45-26 in Pretoria
2006: South Africa won 21-20 in Rustenburg
2005: South Africa won 22-16 at Newlands
2005: New Zealand won 31-27 in Dunedin
2004: New Zealand won 23-21 in Christchurch
2004: South Africa won 40-26 in Johannesburg
2003: New Zealand won 52-16 in Pretoria
2003: New Zealand won 19-11 in Dunedin
2002: New Zealand won 41-20 in Wellington
2002: New Zealand won 30-23 in
Durban
2001: New Zealand won 12-3 at Newlands
2001: New Zealand won 26-15 in Auckland
2000: New Zealand won 25-12 in Christchurch
2000: South Africa won 46-40 in Johannesburg
1999: New Zealand won 28-0 in Dunedin
1999: New Zealand won 34-18 in _Pretoria
1998: South Africa won 13-3 in Wellington
1998: South Africa won 24-23 in Durban
1997: New Zealand won 35-32 in Johannesburg
1997: New Zealand won 55-35 in Auckland
1996: New Zealand won 15-11 in Christchurch
1996: New Zealand won 29-18 at Newlands
Prediction: In 1995 Morné du Plessis, the former Springbok captain and the manager of the Springboks at the World Cup spoke of Springbok success being carried along by the "surge of the nation". The surge of the nation will be with New Zealand in Wellington. The surge of the weather will also be with the All Blacks. If the forecast happens, it will be a miserable day, not the sort most Springboks are used to, and against Italy they showed that miserable weather does not suit them.
The Tri-Nations is New Zealand's sort of competition. They will win by more than 15 points.
Teams:
New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Sitiveni Sivivatu, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Rudi Wulf, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Andy Ellis, 8 Jerome Kaino, 7 Rodney So'oialo (captain), 6 Adam Thomson, 5 Ali Williams, 4 Brad Thorn, 3 Greg Somerville, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Neemia Tialata, 18 Anthony Boric, 19 Sione Lauaki, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Stephen Donald, 22 Leon MacDonald.
South Africa: 15 Conrad Jantjes, 14 Odwa Ndungane, 13 Adrian Jacobs, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Bryan Habana, 10 Butch James, 9 Ricky Januarie, 8 Joe van Niekerk, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield, 4 Bakkies Botha, 3 CJ van der Linde, 2 John Smit (captain), 1 Gürthro
Steenkamp.
Replacements: 16 Bismark du Plessis, 17 Brian Mujati, 18 Andries Bekker, 19 Luke Watson, 20, Bolla Conradie, 21 François Steyn, 22 Percy Montgomery.
Date: Saturday, 5 July 2008
Kick-off: 19.35 (07.35 GMT)
Venue: Westpac Stadium, Wellington
Expected weather conditions: 40% chance of rain with a high of 9°C, dropping to 5°C and a westerly of 39 km/h, freshening.
Referee: Stuart Dickinson (Australia)
Touch judges: Matt Goddard (Australia), James Leckie (Australia)
TMO: George Ayoub (Australia)
By Paul Dobson
