Preview: 3N, South Africa v Australia
Fri, 22 Aug 2008 01:06
Who will be the losers?: Aussie wing Lote Tuqiri makes his match prediction
Australia have not won much in South Africa of late, but South Africa have not won much in the Tri-Nations this year. The Springboks are on one out of four, the Wallabies on one out of 12. Their last win was, perhaps significantly, in Durban in 2000 when a dubious last-minute penalty won the match for them 19-18.
If history, as is claimed, repeats itself, the Springboks will win. But history, it is claimed, is there to be made. There is no reason on earth why the Wallabies should not win.
The 'third match' in this Tri-Nations has been a tough one. The Springboks lost their third match, All Blacks lost their third and the Wallabies lost their third. This is not a third Tri-Nations match for the Springboks but it is their third successive match starting with one against the Pumas, a costly match for the winners as it ended tough man Bakkies Botha's Tri-Nations. Third match suggests a Springbok defeat. The Springboks have had two matches while the Wallabies had two weeks off.
Home ground? It does not work miracles. The Springboks have not been good at home this year - not against the enfeebled Welsh, not against the dogged Italians, not against the enfeebled Pumas, and not against the All Blacks when they fell over their own feet, missing out on match-winning opportunities. All of that said, there is no reason on earth why the Springboks should not win. But home ground alone will not do it.
What will do it is taking chances to score when they are on offer - kicking goals when there is the chance and scoring tries.
Butch James is again the Springboks' sole goalkicker with Percy Montgomery on the bench, but he kicks well at Absa Stadium. The Wallabies have two excellent goalkickers in Matt Giteau and Stirling Mortlock.
Other kicking will count. Australia has kickers who can kick with both feet, while South Africa is essentially a right-footed team. James and Giteau can both do the tactical thing, but it is uncertain whether James will be allowed to do it. Fourie can kick many metres, but then Giteau is no laggard either.
The Springboks can score tries. They did so in New Zealand but they have to be more thoughtful about it than they were at Newlands, when they charged and charged and lost the ball. The Wallabies can score tries. They have big Mortlock to breach gaps and rangy Lote Tuqiri to finish them off. Peter Hynes and Drew Mitchell are also men who can run strongly and score tries.
Mistakes have to be cut down. Some statistics suggested that at Newlands the Springboks made a mistake every 23 seconds. That said, for 70 minutes they were right in the game, down just 5-0 with better chances of scoring than the All Blacks. Wallaby errors at Eden Park were serious. In fact the Wallabies have less reason to be confident for they were more comprehensively beaten at Eden Park than the Springboks were at Newlands.
The best of the Springboks last weekend was their scrumming. They outscrummed the All Blacks. If they are given a fair chance to scrum they will have a good chance to outscrum the Wallabies. But they need a fair chance. One hopes fervently that the scrums will not revert to being a mess.
Scrums involving Australia have been an annoying, enervating mess.
In matches involving only New Zealand and South Africa, there were 60 scrums, 8 resets and 8 collapses. In matches involving Australia, there were 50 scrums, 23 resets and 41 collapses. That is a huge discrepancy.
The All Blacks beat the Wallabies hands down in the line-outs, but now they have Daniel Vickerman and Rocky Elsom back, a huge boon. Each side should be able to get its own ball.
That brings us to the tackle/ruck. The Springboks have the same pack lathered by the All Blacks, thumped at the breakdown. It is a situation that can be corrected and with concentration and determination rectified. If it is not, the game is for the Wallabies' winning.
Players to Watch: You will see lots of Fourie du Preez and Schalk Burger on the South African side and Matt Giteau and George Smith on the Australian side - four players who could have a profound effect on the match.
Head to Head: Stirling Mortlock of Australia against whoever will be marking him. In Perth he ran over Jean de Villiers to score the crucial try. The clash in the centres could be vital, for is Berrick Barnes able to nullify Jean de Villiers of the clean break? There is also an interesting match-up at No.2 - Bismarck du Plessis against Stephen Moore, both strong men, both powerful with the ball in hand. The battle between Tendai Mtawarira and Matt Dunning could be crucial but not as crucial as the battle between Schalk Burger and George Smith. In this Tri-Nations Rocky Elsom has been more effective than Juan Smith who was such a star at the World Cup and Pierre Spies has greater athleticism than Wycliff Palu but the Wallaby has greater thrust.
Previous Tri-Nations Results:
2008: Australia won 16-9 at Subiaco Oval
2007: Australia won 25-17 at Stadium Australia
2007: South Africa won 22-19 at Newlands
2006: South Africa won 24-16 at Ellis Park
2006: Australia won 20-18 at Stadium Australia
2006: Australia won 49-0 at Suncorp Stadium
2005: South Africa won 22-19 at Subiaco Oval
2005: South Africa won 22-16 at Loftus Versfeld
2004: South Africa won 23-19 at Kings Park
2004: Australia won 26-30 at Subiaco Oval
2003: Australia won 29-9 at Suncorp Stadium
2003: South Africa won 26-22 at Newlands
2002: South Africa won 33-31 at Ellis Park
2002: Australia won 38-27 at
Woolloongabba
2001: Draw 14-14 at Subiaco Oval
2001: South Africa won 20-15 at Loftus Versfeld
2000: Australia won 19-18 at Kings Park Stadium
2000: Australia won 26-6 at Stadium Australia
1999: South Africa won 10-9 at Newlands
1999: Australia won 32-6 at Lang Park
1998: South Africa won 29-15 at Ellis Park
1998: South Africa won 14-13 at Subiaco Oval
1997: South Africa won 61-22 at Loftus Versfeld
1997: Australia won 32-20 at Lang Park
1996: South Africa won 25-19 at Vodacom Park
1996: Australia won 21-16 at Sydney Football Stadium
Prediction: It's hard. Who knows what side is going to play and how. But looking at the situation as it has been one would suggest that Australia will win by more than 10.
Teams:
South Africa: 15 Conrad Jantjes, 14 JP Pietersen, 13 Adrian Jacobs, 12 Jean de Villiers, 11 Jongi Nokwe, 10 Butch James,
9 Fourie du Preez, 8 Pierre Spies, 7 Juan Smith, 6 Schalk Burger, 5 Victor Matfield (captain), 4 Andries Bekker, 3 CJ van der Linde, 2 Bismarck du Plessis, 1 Tendai Mtawarira.
Replacements: 16 Adriaan Strauss, 17 Brian Mujati, 18 Joe van Niekerk, 19 Luke Watson, 20 Ricky Januarie, 21 Frans Steyn, 22 Percy Montgomery.
Australia: 15 Drew Mitchell, 14 Peter Hynes, 13 Stirling Mortlock (captain), 12 Berrick Barnes, 11 Lote Tuqiri, 10 Matt Giteau, 9 Sam Cordingley, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 George Smith, 6 Rocky Elsom, 5 Daniel Vickerman, 4 James Horwill, 3 Matt Dunning, 2 Stephen Moore, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 Tatafu Polota-Nau, 17 Al Baxter, 18 Hugh McMeniman, 19 Phil Waugh, 20 Brett Sheehan, 21 Timana Tahu, 22 Ryan Cross.
Date: Saturday, 23 August
Kick-off: 15.00 (13.00 GMT)
Venue: Absa Stadium, Durban
Expected weather conditions:
Clear with a high of 30°C and a northeaster of 14 km/h.
Referee: Lyndon Bray (New Zealand)
Touch judges: Bryce Lawrence (New Zealand), Rob Debney (England)
TMO: Romain Poite (France)
By Paul Dobson
