Preview: Ireland v Argentina
Ireland are banking on the players that narrowly lost to South Africa to do the business against Argentina in Dublin on Saturday, in a Test match the hosts are labelling a 'Cup Final'.
Irish coach Declan Kidney has made just one change to the side beaten 16-12 by the Springboks a fortnight ago at Lansdowne Road, with Ulster wing Craig Gilroy rewarded with a starting place after his hat-trick against Fiji in last Saturday's non-cap international in Limerick.
Gilroy's provincial teammate Andrew Trimble is the man to miss out, but the rest of the first choice XV remain for a game that will secure the victors a place in the top eight of the International Rugby Board rankings, which are being used to determine the seedings for the 2015 World Cup draw in December.
Failure to win will put Ireland coach Kidney under immense pressure.
Ireland are on a run of five Test defeats in a row, and 2012 has seen the country experience its worst sequence of results in the professional era.
Dropping into the third tier of seeds for next month's World Cup draw would leave Ireland with the possibility of being selected in a pool containing two major nations.
Kidney will point to the fact he's been without the highly-influential Brian O'Driscoll, Paul O'Connell, Rory Best, Stephen Ferris, Sean O'Brien and Rob Kearney this month due to injury, but the lack of consistency since winning the 2009 Six Nations Grand Slam has been startling.
A revamped Argentina offer little comfort despite the fact Ireland have won the last two meetings between the countries.
Much of the talk this week has been about how the South Americans have changed their game, with less emphasis on their undoubted strength up front, and a new eagerness to display their abilities behind the outside-half.
Argentina competed in the Rugby Championship for the first time this year and Ireland's Keith Earls observed a difference in their approach.
"They have played seven or even eight games so they are well into it and they are a great squad," he said.
"Obviously they have done a lot of work and Graham Henry [New Zealand's World Cup-winning coach] was in with them for a while during the Rugby Championship and they are just not a No.1 to No.10 team now.
"They have a great backline and they are strong lads as well."
Argentina coach Santiago Phelan has made four changes to his team from the one that lost to France in Lille last week, with full-back Juan Martin Hernandez proving his fitness sufficiently to take the No 15 shirt.
Maximiliano Bustos has been handed a debut in the front row, while Santiago Fernandez and Gonzalo Camacho complete the changes in the back line.
Beaten 19-3 and 29-9 in their last two visits to Dublin, Argentina are hoping to put up more of a fight this time around.
"In 2010, maybe we were tired at this stage," Camacho said of the Pumas, who started this tour with a bang by beating Six Nations Grand Slam champions Wales in Cardiff.
"Now we have more confidence and a team that is growing, we have a new team with new people coming up."
Meanwhile lock Manuel Carizza added: "It's unusual for us to be together five months in a year. We are enjoying it and learning a lot. We learned a lot from the Rugby Championship.
"It always felt like a club team because we are very close and have a great group. But now we have a lot of time together."
Players to watch:
For Ireland: Scoring a hat-trick against a depleted and lacklustre Fijian side is one thing. Craig Gilroy will find out quickly what real Test rugby is about against an Argentinean team that is right up there with the best. Jonathan Sexton will need to give his team direction and that will require a drastic improvement in form. Jamie Heaslip must give the pack the go-forward, while Chris Henry and Peter O'Mahony will be key players at the breakdown.
For Argentina: The current Argentinean team revolves around captain Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe and he is certainly worth watching. Juan Martin Hernandez, Gonzalo Camacho and Juan Imhoff can be dangerous runners if they get quality ball from their pack.
Head to head: They have had their moments, but consistency has been an issue for flyhalves Jonathan Sexton (Ireland) and Nicolas Sanchez (Argentina). They will be the 'generals' in the battle between the two countries. The scrums could be interesting – can Mike Ross, Richardt Strauss and Cian Healy (Ireland) hold their own against Maximiliano Bustos, Eusebio Guinazu and Marcos Ayerza (Argentina).
Recent results:
2010: Ireland won 29-9, Dublin
2008: Ireland won 17-3, Dublin
2007: Argentina won 30-15, Paris (World Cup pool match)
2007: Argentina won 16-0, Buenos Aires
2007: Argentina won 22-20, Sante Fe
2004: Ireland won 21-19, Dublin
2003: Ireland won 16-15, Adelaide (World Cup pool match)
2002: Ireland won 16-7, Dublin
2000: v Argentina 34-23, Buenos Aires
1999: Argentina win 28-24, Lens
Prediction: Last week France systematically dismantled Argentina last week, but that is no reflection of the potential of this Argentinean team. The manner in which the Puma accounted for Wales earlier this month is more a reflection of what a stuttering Irish team can expect. And the Pumas have a history of upsetting the men from the Emerald Iisle. Argentina should win, but by 10 points or less in a real arm-wrestle.
Teams:
Ireland: 15 Simon Zebo, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Keith Earls, 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Craig Gilroy, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Chris Henry, 6 Peter O'Mahony, 5 Mike McCarthy, 4 Donnacha Ryan, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Richardt Strauss, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Dave Kilcoyne, 18 Michael Bent, 19 Donncha O'Callaghan, 20 Iain Henderson, 21 Eoin Reddan, 22 Ronan O'Gara, 23 Fergus McFadden.
Argentina: 15 Juan Martin Hernandez, 14 Gonzalo Camacho, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Santiago Fernandez, 11 Juan Imhoff, 10 Nicolas Sanchez, 9 Martin Landajo, 8 Leonardo Senatore, 7 Juan Manuel Leguizamon, 6 Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe, 5 Julio Farias Cabello, 4 Manuel Carizza, 3 Maximiliano Bustos, 2 Eusebio Guinazu, 1 Marcos Ayerza.
Replacements: 16 Agustin Creevy, 17 Nahuel Lobo, 18 Francisco Gomez Kodela, 19 Tomas Vallejos, 20 Tomas Leonardi, 21 Nicolas Vergallo, 22 Gonzalo Tiesi, 23 Manuel Montero.
Date: Saturday, November 24
Kick-off: 14.00 (14:00 GMT; 11.00 Arg time)
Venue: Aviva Stadium, Dublin
Expected weather: It will be mostly clear and any rain is not expected to arrive till Sunday. However, it will be crisp, with a high of just 7°C and a low of 2°C. Winds from the NNE at 5 to 15 km/h
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Romain Poite (France), Andrew Small (England)
TMO: Geoff Warren (England)
AFP & rugby365
